Archive | October, 2010

Surprise to the Upside?

I was talking to a friend who overseas quite a bit of customer money and when the topic of the coming quantitative easing — QE II — came up I said: “the last time they did it, it worked.  Asset class markets stabilized and then rallied”                 My friend, who is an investor and not a [...]

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Will Trend Shift in Bonds affect the Greenback?

With rallies in global stock markets, and now a blowout quarter for Ford Motor Company is the tide finally turning for U.S. Treasuries and long-term U.S. interest rates?    And if  U.S. rates do uptick, would it spell a bottom in USDJPY? The bond chart tells a thousand words: Jay Norris Jay Norris is the author of  Mastering the Currency Market, McGraw-Hill, 2009 [...]

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Interest Rate Influence Returning?

Relationships change, behavior does not; which is why we teach how to spot set-ups and signals in individual markets, and don’t dwell on parallel analysis between markets.  We would never want to rely on a market relationship in our trading, because relationships by definition change.   I focus on currencies but work with clients who actively trade commodities and the [...]

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Double Top in Bonds Signaling Bottom for Interest Rates?

If the U.S. Treasury Bond market finally tops out it will likely mean longer-term rates have bottomed over the near term.  As Treasury prices rallied sharply over the last 6-months U.S. interest rates ground lower and the financial markets focused on across the board easing by the U.S. Fed, and Treasury, who were reported to be outright [...]

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Price & Fundamentals = Reflexivity

George Soros’ theory off reflexivity has influenced traders since he wrote about it in his work The Alchemy of Finance many years ago. The trader Paul Tudor Jones, arguably the best trader of this current generation, won’t hire an individual unless the prospect can give him a suitable explanation of Soros theory on reflexivity. If I [...]

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Making the Indicators More Intuitive

Making the Indicators more Intuitive Our technology officer and I had the same problems when it came to knowing when to allow a trade a bit of room to let a profit run, and knowing when to bail on a trade and re-board on the next signal. In comparing notes we realized we also had [...]

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