The week kicks off with the release of the Flash purchasing managers’ index data, which gives investors the clearest indication of how badly the second wave of coronavirus infections and bans has hit business across Europe.
Policy makers prepare to relax the Covid-19 lockdown as restrictions introduced across Europe in late October begin to produce results. There has been a slowdown in new infections in most countries.
This leads to calls from retailers to end mandatory store closings that are not considered material during the most lucrative trading month of the year.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to outline his plan on Monday for what will come after the end of England’s nationwide lockdown on December 2nd. Mass testing is expected to play a big role in preventing the pandemic from returning.
Britain has no budget this fall, instead Chancellor Rishi Sunak will be in the spotlight this Wednesday when he presents the government’s spending review. This is accompanied by a full update of the economic and tax outlook by the Office of Budgetary Responsibility.
Brexit negotiations are also resuming online after being suspended last week when one of the negotiators tested positive for Covid-19.
The US will sit down on Thursday for Thanksgiving, which for many people is celebrated under Covid restrictions. The start of the holiday shopping season also begins.
Daily coronavirus cases in the country are at record levels and the average death rate has reached its highest level since May.
At a time of year known for bringing families together, health experts and officials urge Americans not to travel to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both released the minutes of their final meetings this week, where investors will be looking for clues as to what steps the central banks will take next.
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UK expenditure review
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will announce the government’s spending plan on Wednesday, which will include initiatives to combat the impact of the coronavirus on the UK economy and protect jobs.
Mr Sunak paved the way for big tax hikes in the spring, warning that the spending review would include projections that reveal the extent of the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 crisis.
The review, which usually includes a three-year plan, was limited to just one year due to the uncertain economic climate. The Budgetary Responsibility Bureau will also release its economic outlook on the same day, while the Debt Management Bureau is expected to make a remittance notice.
National debt stood at £ 260.8 billion between April and October this year as the government increased spending on funding vacation programs and dealing with the Covid-19 crisis.
The sharp rise in total net public sector debt, which stands at £ 2,076 billion, is likely to have a serious impact on public finances as the government already plans to freeze wages and cut prices for the public sector, except for NHS frontline workers.
Company news and earnings
Former High Court judge Elizabeth Gloster will be releasing a report on Monday on how the Financial Conduct Authority, the UK’s watchdog, dealt with the collapse of the London Capital & Finance mutual fund.
Dame Elizabeth’s account on the mini-bond scandal, which cost investors £ 236 million, has been held up more than once by delays by the FCA in information disclosure.
Investors will watch out for updates AvivaThe new strategy, including the potential sale of European units, when the insurer reports on Thursday.
Executives from some of the big miners like BHP, Anglo American and Rio Tinto will attend Australia’s largest online industry conference, Imarc, a four-day event that ends Friday. Rio Tinto’s reputation has recently deteriorated due to the scandal over the destruction of an ancient Aboriginal site in Australia.
New green technologies to lead the industry into a more sustainable future will be a hot topic at the conference as the mining sector struggles to get relevant at a time when investors are increasingly focused on social, environmental and governance issues to stay.
The Italian energy company Enel will unveil its strategic plan on Tuesday outlining its strategy to accelerate the reduction of its carbon footprint. Analysts will be on the lookout for plans for the group’s 50 percent stake in broadband company Open Fiber.
Engine oil will publish its results for the third quarter on Tuesday along with Lukoilwhile Gazprom will publish its profits on Thursday.
UK retail sales spiked in October as shoppers were quick to buy Christmas presents before non-essential stores closed. UK fashion retailers do not appear to have benefited as much from the shift from services to goods in shoppers’ habits during the pandemic.
This week, Urban Outfitters Reports on Monday, followed by gap, Nordstrom and Abercrombie & Fitch on Tuesday. Ted Baker published its results on Friday.
Other companies reporting this week are tractor manufacturers Deere & Co., Chinese group Xiaomi, US electronics retailer Best buy, US printing company HP, Warner Music, Pet food manufacturer JM Smucker, UK meat processor Cranswick, Media group Daily Mail and General Trust, Editor To reach, Owner of Daily Mirror and Daily Express newspapers and British defense contractor Babcock International.
The US Federal Reserve will release the minutes of this month’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday to give investors a glimpse of how seriously the US Federal Reserve is considering further stimulus given the rise in coronavirus cases around the world.
There was no policy change at his early November meeting, but Chairman Jay Powell said changes to the asset purchase program were discussed to provide additional momentum.
The Fed previously promised to buy an unlimited amount of US Treasury bonds at a current monthly pace of $ 80 billion over all Treasury lines.
One suggestion that has been gaining popularity with investors is that the Fed should focus most of its buying on longer-term debt.
The ECB released the minutes of its late October meeting on Thursday in which it pledged to “recalibrate its instruments” and investors will look to further insight into the ECB’s options.
The central bank of Nigeria The two-day monetary policy meeting is set to begin Monday after a surprising 100 basis points cut in September to bolster Africa’s largest economy. Over the weekend, the country officially entered its second recession in less than five years.
in the KenyaThe central bank is likely to stay in position after cutting 150 basis points this year, and Angola is likely to remain on hold as well.
GhanaThe central bank is expected to keep interest rates at 14.5 percent on Monday.
Analysts do not forecast any change for Sweden, Kenya and South Korea on Thursday, but there is a chance that Sri Lanka will lower its interest rates on standing deposits and standing loans on the same day.
Colombia The rate is expected to stay at 1.75 percent on Friday as the economy recovers.
Flash PMIs this week will be in focus if Eurozone data is likely to point to further decline in business in November as recent government-imposed restrictions weigh on consumer spending and business investment.
The total PMI in the euro zone, which includes both services and manufacturing, is expected to decrease from 50 in the previous month to 49.3, according to consensus economists’ expectations calculated by Reuters.
It would be the first time since June that it fell below the critical 50 mark, suggesting that the majority of companies are reporting a decline in activity compared to the previous month.
The data – which is also expected to see a sustained decline in service activity and a slowdown in manufacturing – will put pressure on the ECB to consider further monetary stimulus at its Governing Council’s December meeting.
It will be a little early to see what impact the recent restrictions will have on Monday’s U.S. PMI, but the country released a lot of other data this week.
Wednesday’s releases will show that personal spending slowed somewhat in October and that the gross domestic product recovery was not revised in the third quarter.
On Thursday, initial jobless claims are expected to drop to 730,000 for the week ending November 16, from 742,000 the week before when the number rose for the first time in five weeks.
Other reports include the merchandise trade balance, durable goods orders, new home sales, and the University of Michigan final November Consumer Sentiment Index.
Export data from South Korea on Monday will provide an indication of the health of world trade, while India will release its third quarter GDP report on Friday.