Fed signals rock-bottom rates until at least end of 2023

Fed signals rock-bottom rates until at least end of 2023

The Federal Reserve indicated it would not raise interest rates until inflation has been higher than 2 per cent “for some time”, as it sought to boost its monetary response to the pandemic.

The new guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee implements a shift towards a more dovish long-term policy stance that was endorsed by the Fed last month, and is likely to translate into rock-bottom interest rates for years to come.

On Wednesday, the Fed’s top monetary policymakers predicted that they would keep the central bank’s main interest rate close to zero until at least the end of 2023, according to their median forecast. 

Although the US economy has bounced back faster than the Fed predicted at the outset of the coronavirus crisis, the recovery is still far from complete and vulnerable to the uncertain health outlook and waning support from fiscal policy. This has prompted Fed officials to debate ways to reinforce their support for the economy, rather than begin to withdraw it.

Until now, the Fed has said it would not tighten policy until it was confident the economy had “weathered recent events” — assessing the economy on whether it had reached its objectives of “maximum employment” and “symmetric 2 per cent inflation”.

But on Wednesday, the FOMC laid out a more ambitious economic goal. It said it would “aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2 per cent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 per cent”. It added that it expected to “maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved”.

According to the median Fed forecasts, US output will contract by 3.7 per cent this year, compared with its June estimate that it would shrink by 6.5 per cent, with unemployment falling to 7.6 per cent by the end of the year, compared with its previous estimate of 9.3 per cent joblessness. 

The changes to the FOMC statement reflect a historic new policy framework for the US central bank unveiled by Mr Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium last month. He announced the Fed would tolerate higher levels of inflation in order to make up for the prolonged period of time in which consumer price increases have fallen below the central bank’s 2 per cent target. 

Two voting members of the FOMC dissented from the new statement. Robert Kaplan, the president of the Dallas Fed, said he would have preferred that the Fed “retain greater policy rate flexibility”, while Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, said he would have liked to keep rates close to zero until inflation reached 2 per cent “on a sustained basis” — arguably a more ambitious goal.

On Wednesday, the Fed also said it would “increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.”

At the moment, it is purchasing Treasuries at a pace of $80bn per month across all maturities.

Longer-dated Treasuries sold off slightly following the announcement, sending the yield on the 30-year note higher by less than 0.01 percentage points to 1.44 per cent. The benchmark 10-year yield was flat at 0.67 per cent.