Bitcoin price can enter a “full bull market” over the next month if the 200-week trend line holds

Bitcoin (BTC) is preparing for a classic-style “full bull” BTC price phase, market cyclist Cole Garner believes.

In an Aug. 6 social media analysis, the popular on-chain analyst said that both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market expect major upside potential.

Strengthening the “backbone of the bitcoin bull market”.

BTC price action continues to stagnate, but those looking further ahead are convinced that this cycle is like any other.

For Garner, the activity of the highest-volume cohort of Bitcoin investors — the whales — is one such reason for optimism.

“Whale accumulation trends are the backbone of a bull market,” he summarized.

Garner cited insights from analytics team Jarvis Labs, which pointed to an ongoing “multi-month buying spree” in response to a Cointelegraph article in June.

Bitcoin whale and fish activity chart. Credit: Jarvis Labs/X (Twitter)

It’s not just whales; Smaller investors, known as fish, have also increased their BTC exposure.

Noted technical analyst CryptoCon continued to refer to whales as “diamond hands” due to their behavior in the current cycle.

“The relationship between retail investors and whales is booming. What does that mean? “The investors who have sold this cycle (2022-2023) are small holding whales,” reads part of the Aug. 3 analysis.

“This is of great importance for the price, which is shown in the past when the metric increases.”

CryptoCon added that the last bitcoin cycle was characterized by “relentless” whale selling – something that is clearly missing today.

“Retail has sold this last bear market, the whales haven’t flinched,” he concluded.

“The wind is behind us in this cycle, that’s great.”Bitcoin investor sells data. Source: CryptoCon/X

Everything depends on the 200-week moving average of the BTC price

Garner, meanwhile, reiterated the importance of the bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on major exchange Bitfinex.

Related: BTC price surge “yet to come” at $29,000 after bitcoin RSI reset – Trader

As Cointelegraph reported, this is currently showing behavior that has preceded every major bull run in Bitcoin’s history.

“Bitfinex Whale matters. Bitfinex is *the* smart money exchange. “Bitfinex Whale drives short to medium-term price movements more than any other company in the crypto space,” he argued.

However, when such a bullish BTC price breakout might occur remains unknown as Garner favors a start in Q3.

“Bear’s other strongest counterargument is summer seasonality. A more powerful force than most realize,” he admitted.

“This riot will come. But probably not until September. The markets should have weeks to function.”

To invalidate the bullish view, he concluded, Bitcoin needs a weekly close below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which currently stands at $27,235, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-week chart at 200SMA. Source: TradingView

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This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risk and readers should do their own research in making their decision.

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