By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The Professor has a stern warning for today’s class: before we create our own trade hype, it’s important to take a deep breath before looking for the close bet value.
Take last season: The Dodgers took on Max Scherzer and Trea Turner but didn’t win the pennant, despite both playing exceptionally well. The Giants brought in Kris Bryant, and although the ball club won 107 games, they failed to get past the National League Division Series.
However, the successes were there. The Braves needed their midseason acquisition in Jorge Soler to win it all (.300/.391/.800 in the World Series). The Astros made less spectacular moves for their bullpen, but they were in September and October still finished ninth in MLB in strikeouts per nine innings (9.38) and eighth in xFIP (4.23). My main point is always to take the hype with a grain of salt.
So now that you’ve done your breathing exercises, let’s break down recent trades, how they affect betting odds, and whether it’s worth investing in this team’s championship odds.
P Ludwig Castle to the seafarers (+3000 to win the World Series at FOX Bet)
As we’ve discussed in this section, there’s no team I’ve been more interested in studying at close than the Mariners.
Sure enough, they’re the first to make an earth-shattering move, bringing in Cincinnati starting pitcher Luis Castillo for a couple of talented prospects.
From a betting perspective, the Seattle move took a lot of value off the futures markets. To win the American League, M odds decreased from +2000 to +1400, and increased from +4000 to +3000 to win the World Series.
Castillo throws fireballs as his fastball averages nearly 97 miles per hour. It might not have much movement, but it doesn’t have to, with an opponent’s batting average of .124 and a strikeout rate of 45.5%. Oddly enough, however, he has had more successful seasons, such as in 2020 with a 2.65 FIP and more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Anyway, he’s a stallion who will help the Mariners a lot at the track.
The market doesn’t have many starting guns available, and Seattle needed one, so this looks like a win for both teams. And given that the Mariners’ playoff drought has lasted longer than any North American team in the big four men’s sports, it was a move they had to make with a high probability of success.
LF Andreas Benintendi to the Yankees (+370 to win the World Series at FOX Bet)
The Bronx Bombers ran away with the AL East and are now big favorites to win the pennant. But that move has improved the Yankees’ chances of winning the World Series, from second-shortest at +400 to shortest with the Dodgers at +350.
Baseball reference charts are gaining above average by position groups, and the Yankees are 10th in left field, their second-worst finish before shortstop. Now New York goes from Joey Gallo, who ranks second among all thugs with at least 250 plate appearances (38.1%), to Andrew Benintendi with the 20th lowest rate (13.3%). He doesn’t have much power, but knows how to get to the base with a .387 OBP. In summary, the Yankees got a lot better on this trade.
P Josh Hader to the Padres (+2200 to win the World Series at FOX Bet)
Relief pitching isn’t San Diego’s biggest need as of deadline, as their bullpen ranks seventh in collective fielding independent pitching. But bringing on someone of Josh Haders caliber to be closer to the ball club is something the Padres just couldn’t pass up, as the Padres have more than enough prospects to lead the way for Milwaukee. The Dodgers also have such a massive lead in the NL West that the odds for the Padres to win the pennant have not changed (+1000 on FOX Bet). World Series futures haven’t moved for San Diego either as they currently sit at +2200.
One reason for the consistency could be that Hader has been unpredictable this season. In every season from 2018 through 2021, his expected batting average was in the 99th percentile of all pitchers in the bigs. However, his home runs per nine innings this season are the highest of all time (1.85).
Overall, few players can force swings and misses more often, and few can throw faster, so the potential for Hader to dominate is there. Perhaps more importantly, San Diego has a lot more prospects than currency, so it’s possible they’re not done trading yet. Keep an eye out for the Padres who may also be after Juan Soto or Wilson Contreras. If SD lands another big fish, watch out for his World Series odds to move significantly.
P Frankie Montas to the Yankees (+370 to win the World Series at FOX Bet)
They may have the best record in the American League, but that mark hasn’t stopped the Yankees from being the most active franchise with a day to go. The latest moves include picking up Oakland starting pitcher Frankie Montas and reliever Lou Trivino in exchange for four prospects.
The deals cut New York’s odds of winning the AL from +175 to +165, but not the World Series. In fact, they’ve increased from +350 to +370 thanks to the Dodgers’ good performance lately.
Montas’ Statcast numbers might not impress Yankee fans. For example, his fastball speed has increased from an average of 98.2 mph to 96.2 mph while other slingshots throw harder, and his hard hit rate (or how often balls hit is at least 95 mph) is in the 56th percentile. But Montas forces a lot of thugs to chase, and his breath rate is more than 30% on his Shard and Shifter.
He can also go five innings consistently, and that reliability can make all the difference in a five- or seven-game streak.
1B/OF Trey Mancini to the Astros (+450 to win the World Series at FOX Bet)
The biggest name among the position players to be traded (so far) has a new home. Former Oriole Trey Mancini goes to Houston as part of a three-team trade, where the Astros gather pitcher Jayden Murray, while Tampa Bay OF gets Jose Siri and Baltimore hosts pitchers Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott.
But back to Mancini. Houston needed a constant hitter at first base about as much as any other position, given this season’s breakup with Yuli Gurriel: .243/.293/.392. While Houston’s American League pennant odds have remained steady at +200, the team’s World Series odds have dropped from +475 to +450.
Where Mancini will provide an advantage is how he handles four-seam fastballs. Run value is a way of assessing the impact of a hitter’s performance when giving runners on base, outs and the count. Against four-seam fastballs, Mancini ranks 16th in MLB with a +10 run rating.
Houston was already fourth in the majors in wRC+ (113). Although they need a catcher who can hit more consistently, this offensive now has virtually no glaring weaknesses.
FROM John Soto to the Padres (+1100 to win the World Series)
Not only is this the marquee deal of the season, but this blockbuster is the biggest deal in recent seasons. Let’s stress how good Juan Soto’s start to his major league career has been. Among all players before their 24th birthday in the Divisional Era (since 1974), the former international ranks first in base percentage among qualifiers (.427), first in walks per plate appearance (.190), seventh in home runs and 10th place in total bases.
Aside from Babe Ruth, players so talented and with so much major league experience are rarely treated. Until now.
San Diego was already considered a finalist for Soto’s services, but by the time the news broke it had a massive impact on the futures market at FOX Bet. To win the National League, the Padres went from +1000 to +400; to win the World Series reduced their odds from +2200 to +1000.
This season alone, Soto’s plate discipline rivals that of any player with multiple seasons of added experience. His chase rate is in the 99th percentile, his 18.6% out-of-zone swing rate is the third best in MLB, and his 20% whiff rate ranks 44th. Combine that with a maximum exit speed of 113.2 mph, that’s in the 90th percentile, and you’ve got a brawler that can do a ton of damage and not self-destruct.
Certainly the amount of prospects and young stars leaving the West Coast is significant. But remember the Padres will get Fernando Tatis Jr back this season (wrist injury). The combination of Tatis, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and first baseman Josh Bell, who is also moving to San Diego with a .301 batting average and a 57 RBI, is about as dangerous as any other group in baseball. And yet, it was pitching that put her in a position to play October baseball.
San Diego is -667 on FOX Bet to make the playoffs, so basically a suspension to make it through the postseason. These are great days to be a Padres fan.
Edward Egros is a sports analysis broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist and Associate Professor of Statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions drove him to become a cold brew fan. Edward previously worked for local television, most notably at Fox’s Dallas affiliate, covering Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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