The bitter conflict between Israel and Hamas could not have come at a worse time for Egypt. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the former military strongman who seized power in 2013 amid the tumultuous aftermath of the Arab Spring, faces parliamentary elections in December.
Given the economic problems and the political and humanitarian catastrophe unfolding on his country’s borders, it will be an election fraught with risks.
Sisi effectively took power in July 2013, after decades of military dictatorship under Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak’s 30-year rule, which ended in April 2011 during the Arab Spring, was followed by a brief and turbulent interregnum in which a Muslim Brotherhood-backed government led by academic Mohamed Morsi struggled to maintain order.
Sisi removed Morsi from power in July 2013 and won 96% of the vote the following year in an election that drew widespread international criticism. Since then he has not really encountered any significant political opposition, but that cannot disguise the fact that he is deeply unpopular with many Egyptians.
Sisi is currently at the helm of the country, which most experts believe is a contender for the worst-performing economy in the region. The annual inflation rate reached a historic high of 38% in September and the youth unemployment rate is currently at 17%.
This economic crisis was exacerbated by several rounds of currency devaluation and an impending bailout ordered by the International Monetary Fund. A harsh austerity program imposed by the IMF will plunge struggling Egyptians into levels of poverty not seen since the Egyptian bread riots of 1977.
Against this unstable background, Sisi will have to fight for re-election. One could be forgiven for assuming it was just an exercise, since Sisi has ruled Egypt with an iron fist since overthrowing the Muslim Brotherhood in a brutal coup in July 2013.
There have been no free and fair elections since then, and Egypt’s independent media has been virtually destroyed in the years since. Opposition parties have been either repressed or co-opted, while civil society – once a vibrant political sector – now looks back on Mubarak’s dictatorship with a certain nostalgia.
At first – and for the first time since Sisi came to power – it looked as if he would face credible opposition. Former MP Ahmed Tantawi, a candidate of the Civil Democratic Movement, made a name for himself as an MP by openly criticizing Sisi in parliament and not participating in the National Dialogue.
This was an initiative promoted by Sisi and launched in May 2023. It was presented by the government as an inclusive forum to address Egypt’s economic and political challenges – but was dismissed by critics as merely a vehicle for Sisi’s own agenda.
Tantawi’s campaign gained momentum with the support of prominent leftists, secularists and even some Muslim Brotherhood leaders in exile, attracted by Tantawi’s stance on releasing political prisoners. There are currently an estimated 40,000 political prisoners in Egyptian prisons, many of them members of the Muslim Brotherhood.
But Tantawi withdrew his candidacy on October 13, saying pro-government “thugs” were preventing people from expressing their support for his candidacy.
If his failed election campaign did not pose a direct threat to Sisi, Tantawi’s popularity represents a structural change in Egyptian politics. Al-Sisi has handled Egypt’s economic problems so poorly in recent years that he has become vulnerable.
And his habit of making careless statements hasn’t helped – once, when asked about the rising price of okra, an Egyptian staple, he suggested they emulate the followers of the Prophet Mohammed and “eat leaves.”
War on the doorstep
With the war in Gaza on Sisi’s doorstep, the regime faces a difficult balancing act. Israel is determined to secure its border, regardless of the consequences for Egypt. But the consequences for Sisi at home could attack vulnerabilities at home. The image of thousands of Gazans dying while Egypt’s Rafah border remains closed could be very damaging for the regime.
Sisi must be careful given his close relationship with the Israeli government. Egypt has been involved in Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip for 16 years and has enforced strict controls at the Rafah border crossing.
But with elections looming, he must now appease the Egyptian public, which is far more sympathetic to Gaza’s plight than the Israelis. He has drawn widespread criticism from opponents who say his government has organized staged protests to capitalize on public sympathy for Palestinians as the death toll from Israel’s war in Gaza rises.
But the real risk to his government lies in the ever-present threat from Egypt’s established Islamist movements. It was a Muslim Brotherhood-sponsored popular uprising in Tahrir Square that toppled Mubarak in 2011 and handed the government to Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.
This story now serves as a serious warning to the Egyptian military never to be complacent about the potential threat posed by Islamist movements. Sisi’s regime has done its utmost to destroy the Brotherhood.
In the decade since his security forces massacred more than 900 people in August 2013 while violently dispersing mass anti-government strikes in Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares, tens of thousands have been arbitrarily detained without trial or tried in military courts for dissent sentenced to long prison terms.
Perhaps the most shameful expression of corrupt exercise of power was the treatment of Morsi by his regime. The former president died after collapsing in the defendant’s “cage” in a Cairo courtroom after six years of solitary confinement.
It’s one thing for an incumbent to deal with the shortcomings of a collapsing economy. It is quite another to accommodate an aggrieved public watching a human rights massacre right at the border. If the Sisi regime continues to allow this, the opposition will have more ammunition than it has in years.
Gillian Kennedy is a lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Southampton
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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