2023-24 NBA Futures and Awards Betting
We’re only a few weeks into the 2023-24 NBA season, but it feels like we’ve learned a lot. A lot of players and teams are really starting to stand out, making it a good time to learn about some futures markets. With that in mind, read on to find out some of the long-term plays I would suggest at this point in the season. Also be sure to listen to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast where I talked about some of these things with Jonathan Von Tobel.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves win NBA championship (65-1)
I wasn’t sure what to think of the Timberwolves before the season, but I’ve been very impressed with what I’ve seen so far. On Monday, the Timberwolves earned a 114-109 overtime win against the Boston Celtics. This is a Celtics team that ranks first in the league in almost every single way. So it was a serious statement from the Timberwolves, who look remarkable defensively. After six games, Minnesota ranks first in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to Dunks & Threes). And the Timberwolves’ defensive rating of 100.7 on the NBA’s official stats site is the lowest grade we’ve seen since the 2015-16 season. Of course, this number may not be sustainable. But this team defends like there’s no tomorrow, and it’s not like the Wolves are suffering on offense either. Anthony Edwards appears poised to rise to the top tier of the league as he is averaging 28.2 points per game and shooting at 62.2%. JVT and Kelley Bydlon both like him as a value bet to win MVP, and it’s hard to argue with them. And Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best shooters in the league, so he has good space distribution for Minnesota. Overall, I just don’t think there’s that much of a talent gap between the Timberwolves and some of the best teams in the league. So that number feels far away. Even if it doesn’t win, there could be some great coverage opportunities if Minnesota at least makes some noise in the playoffs.
Chet Holmgren wins Rookie of the Year (+425)
Victor Wembanyama’s 38-point performance against the Phoenix Suns on November 2nd was great. The 7-foot-4 phenom scored points all over the court, including in the crucial minute. We’ve simply never seen a player like him and this performance was a glimpse into his future. However, Wembanyama’s offensive efficiency has not been entirely consistent this season. In fact, that was the only appearance where he truly looked like the player he was designed to be. Of course, I should mention that Wembanyama has been excellent defensively, already defending at a high level due to his incredible length and excellent movement skills. But Wembanyama is currently a -350 favorite to win the award, giving him an implied probability of 77.78%. That number just feels far away considering Holmgren was by far the best rookie.
This season, Holmgren is averaging 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in 29.9 minutes per game. He has been a two-pronged force for an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is 4-3 and hoping to make the playoffs this season. Holmgren’s traditional stats are on par with Wembanyama’s, but the former Gonzaga star has a 71.5% strike rate. Wembanyamas is down 56.5%. Holmgren also beat Wembanyama in Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, Offensive Box Plus Minus, Defensive Box Plus Minus and VORP categories. These are some of the better advanced metrics out there (all available at Basketball-Reference), and Holmgren outpaced them by a significant margin. The crazy thing about some of Holmgren’s numbers is that he ranks 13th in the entire VORP league, tied with players like Edwards and Paul George. And he ranks 15th in the league in BPM, which puts him ahead of LeBron James.
Wembanyama has been very impressive this season and I would choose him over any player in the league if I could start a franchise with someone. But Wembanyama was impressive for a rookie. Holmgren played like an All-NBA forward. With that in mind, I think this market needs to change soon and I hope voters don’t get too caught up in the hype. If it stays that way the rest of the year, Holmgren deserves his flowers.
Rudy Gobert named Defensive Player of the Year (10-1)
Prior to the year, Gobert had won this award at 13-1, but I think that’s something that should still be played with the current number. As mentioned, the Timberwolves are currently the best defensive team in the entire NBA. And Gobert is the anchor of this defense as he is one of the best rim protectors in the league. Gobert became something of a punchline after the Timberwolves traded away their entire assets to get him, and the Frenchman responded with one of the worst years of his career. But through six games, Gobert looks a lot like the player he was with the Utah Jazz. Considering he won this award three times with Utah, that’s hard to ignore when betting on this market. Gobert also leads the league in Defensive Win Shares this year, so the advanced stats agree with the eye test. Still, I think we’re looking at one of the better comeback stories of the season.
Naz Reid is named Sixth Man of the Year (20-1) and Eric Gordon is named Sixth Man of the Year (30-1)
Reid is currently averaging 15.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game in 23.8 minutes per game for the Timberwolves. He also does this with a shooting rate of 55.7% from the field, 46.4% from three-point range and 92.9% from the charity stripe. Reid has been great as the Timberwolves’ immediate offensive player off the bench and I don’t see that slowing down any time soon. So if the Timberwolves do big things this season, Reid will likely be in the mix for this award.
As for Gordon, the veteran primarily started for the Suns due to injuries to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, but will soon move to the bench. However, Gordon has already shown that he still has plenty left as he is averaging 15.3 points per game this season. Gordon’s ability to create space on the floor will be a very valuable asset in Phoenix’s offense this year, and that means he will continue to play a big role even after the Stars return. And I would even say that Gordon could continue to close out games for the Suns, as they can use a shooter like him out there – and he happens to be a better defender than people think. So if he continues to score in double figures and the Suns finish in the top half of the Western Conference, I think he’ll have a chance to do that towards the end of the year.
VSiN NBA Links
NBA betting splits
NBA injury report
NBA team performance ratings
NBA odds
Hardwood Handicappers Podcast
Comments are closed.