As the 2024 Bitcoin halving approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to stay above $63,000 and the price is expected to fall even further in what is called a “correction.”
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe turned to X and explained that the current consolidation is a case of “pre-halving peak” and Bitcoin still has time to reach a new all-time high.
Consolidation in #Bitcoin continues.
I don't think we'll see much spectacle from Bitcoin; If we can do that, it will have to break the $70.3K mark.
There is time for new ATHs above, but I suspect we are still seeing the fall of a pre-halving high.
Just like any other cycle. pic.twitter.com/1N1Z0JW4sj
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 22, 2024
Bitcoin saw a price decline of almost 2.6% in the past week and a 4% price decline in the past two weeks. According to Van de Poppe, this could be due to the upcoming halving.
He said that, like any other cycle, we have not yet seen the Bitcoin peak before the halving, adding that Bitcoin may not see a big “spectacle” unless it reaches $70,300.
Bitcoin halving is an automatic process that reduces miners' rewards by half. Halving occurs every four years or after 210,000 Bitcoin blocks have been mined. The next halving is expected to take place in April 2024.
Van de Poppe compared Bitcoin's price performance to the 2016-2017 cycle and suggested that history will repeat itself and Bitcoin will experience a significant uptrend.
“My main thesis is that we saw the pre-halving hype and that we are going to have a long, massive bull market.”
In some ways, #Bitcoin price performance is comparable to the 2016-2017 cycle.
The peak is four weeks before the halving.
Consolidation and another correction, after which there is a slow upward trend, which accelerates six months later. pic.twitter.com/s68C70W76G
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 22, 2024
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $65,537, up 3.2% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. As previously mentioned, the current price represents a 2.6% decline in seven days.
However, it represents a 26% improvement within 30 days.
Bitcoin 30 Day Price Chart | Source: CoinGecko
Pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital points out that this year’s Bitcoin correction has already begun ahead of the halving. Bitcoin pre-halving retracements typically occur 14 to 28 days before the halving event.
According to Rekt Capital, this year's price drop is similar to the 20% correction before the halving in 2020 and the 40% decline before the halving in 2016.
#BTC
The Bitcoin retracement before the halving
Bitcoin is officially in the “danger zone” (orange), where historic pre-halving retracements have begun
Historically, Bitcoin has performed pre-halving retracements 14 to 28 days before the halving
In 2020, this decline was -20% and occurred 14… pic.twitter.com/PcWJrqCLRQ
– Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 22, 2024
He added that the correction would last about 77 days, although the reduction could be smaller than in previous cycles.
The current downtrend offers investors a better opportunity to buy Bitcoin ahead of the upcoming halving, which, if history repeats itself, will likely be followed by an uptrend.
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