Hi everyone, I came back to you for the second time this week. I would like to thank Chris Bengel for filling in for me yesterday and for his beautiful Lede last night. It’s a shame that you only managed 1-2 with your picks.
Good luck next time.
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Anyway, I’ll be back for the rest of this week and I promise you I won’t be on vacation for the next 10 days. I’m sorry, but my vacation hours are not carried over to next year and with the football season starting soon, I will have to adjust for as long as possible! I mean, I would never consider leaving you up and dry during football season. I am not a monster.
Okay now we better try than brat last night or who knows what he’ll say about me when I’m back on vacation.
All times Eastern and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
Dodgers at Giants, 9:45 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The choice: Under 7.5 (-110): Before the MLB season started, I ran through all of my predictions for the season and those predictions resulted in all of the MLB futures we took on with teams to win the division, make the playoffs, etc. A team, that was not on the list one of those futures was that of the San Francisco Giants, but that wasn’t because my numbers found no value. It was just the opposite.
My numbers had the Giants as one of the most undervalued teams in the market before the season started, but I made the decision to ignore it. You see, a lot of extreme longshots have value, but I don’t always wager on them in the futures markets because I hate to sit around waiting for six months for a bet that has only about a 5% chance of winning. So I gave up futures for the Giants in order to win NL West and reach the playoffs. Now it is almost August and the Giants are in first place in NL West. Oops.
Either way, the rivalry between the Dodgers and the Giants is already one of the best in baseball, and when you consider that these are the two best teams in NL West, it takes on a whole different level. We’re also going to get a great pitching match between Walker Buehler and Anthony DeSclafani. These two do an excellent job of suppressing the running sums on their own, and when you factor in the statement the ball carries at night in San Francisco, the value of this game only increases.
Key trend: The Under is 9-3-1 in San Francisco’s last 13 as an underdog.
This is what SportsLine says about the game: The Advanced Computer Model doesn’t care about both sides of the grand total, but it does have an A-rated moneyline game.
💰 The selection
Yankees at Rays, 7:10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The choice: Under 8.5 (+100) – Nestor Cortes vs. Michael Wacha isn’t exactly a pitcher’s duel, but there’s still a value below the grand total in this matchup. Just because you don’t know who Nestor Cortes is doesn’t mean he stinks. He’s only played 27.2 innings this season, but he dropped 31.2% of the hitters he faced and didn’t allow much hard contact. Of course, his 9.2% gait rate is an issue, and his 1.95 ERA probably won’t stay that low for much longer. Even so, he’s a left-handed person who misses bats exposed to an offense that left-handed people contend with year-round.
On the flip side, Wacha’s totals have been skewed badly by some poor relief appearances. His ERA as a starter is 3.98, and the Rays usually ask him no more than twice to go through the order before flipping the ball over to one of the best bullpens in the game.
Key trend: The Under stand 6-2 in Tampa’s last eight home games.
Nationals at Phillies, 7:05 pm | TV: MLB.TV
The choice: Nationals (+196) – Although this falls under our NL Least principle, it is not a strict principle game. Although that certainly didn’t hurt. More than anything, the Nationals are just way too valuable at this price point. The Phillies are a mediocre team with some great parts. Usually, when those great parts don’t take the load, things don’t go well.
Plus, while the Phillies might have their ace in Zack Wheeler tonight, Wheeler wasn’t particularly brilliant against Washington. Wheeler has only allowed 35 earned runs in 132.2 innings this season, but you might be surprised to learn that seven of those runs (a full 20%) came in three starts against the Nats. The Phillies should win this matchup most of the time, but not often enough to justify the Nats being such a big hound.
Key trend: The Nats are 10-4 in their last 14 against NL Ost.
🔒 SportsLine tip of the day: The SDQL gurus have seen a return of 15.58 units on their last 183 MLB money line games, and they love the value on one side of today’s game between the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox.
💸 The DFS Rundown
The three best starters
Today’s top stack
⚾ Hump Day Parlay
It didn’t work out well for us on Monday, but the value is back tonight. This run line parlay pays +258.
- White socks -1.5 (-120)
- Angel -1.5 (-105)