The decline in feed wheat futures values continues with the London May 2023 contract falling below £240/t on Friday 16th December.
The lower price has led some buyers to take advantage of the reduction for delivery in the first half of 2023, but domestic demand is otherwise slow, traders say.
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Global demand is stronger as China eases some Covid-19 restrictions and Ukraine tightened measures this week.
Black Sea exports are very competitive, largely ousting British wheat from the race.
There is relatively weak demand for feed barley from both domestic blenders and export buyers.
Looking ahead to the new crop, November 2023 Fodder Wheat closed at £228/t on Thursday 15th December with no trading recorded before 1pm on 16th December.
Harvest estimate 2022
Defra’s first formal crop estimate for 2022, released this week, put the UK wheat harvest at 15.54 million tonnes, up 11% year-on-year on slightly larger acreage and an increase in yields.
Wheat, barley, oats and rapeseed yields are all estimated to be higher than in the previous year, despite the drought in some areas.
This is the largest wheat harvest since 2019 and is 14% above the previous five-year average (2017-2021). The Defra estimate is 123,000 t below the AHDB preliminary estimate from mid-November.
“Although the final Defra production figure is slightly below the preliminary estimate, it remains the largest harvest since 2019,” the AHDB said
“Applying them to the current supply and demand forecasts, the surplus available for either export or free inventory remains the largest since 2015-16.”
Barley production was estimated at 7.385 million tonnes, a 6% increase over the previous year and in line with the previous five-year average.
Oats were estimated at 1.007 million tonnes, down 10% from the 2021 crop but up 2% from the previous five-year average.
Canola production is estimated to have increased 39% to 1.361 million tonnes in 2022, with the highest yields since 2017.
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