Published: November 25, 2023, 8:00 am ET
We hope you all had a great Thanksgiving and Black Friday, Pickswise Nation! We’ve already been treated to 4 NFL games this week, but the fun continues on Sunday with another 11 matchups to look forward to. Our experts have 3 The best NFL bets which you should consider for Sunday’s promotion as they look to continue their winning streak and add more profit to your balance. So far this season, our NFL experts have a record of 36-25 for +18.24 units of winning with their 3-star team NFL picks.
Now let’s dive into this week’s best bets and help you bet better this NFL Sunday!
Chris Farley: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons over 42 (-110)
This is one of those situations where everyone and their brother is waiting for a low scoring game. I don’t think we’ll see that. First of all, the Falcons and Saints know they both need to improve their offense. Even though they haven’t yet entered the “elite” scene, their defense hasn’t been the problem. Both teams have vaunted secondaries that easily limit opposing QBs. Both prove this with top 10 results in opposing yards per pass. Atlanta has mostly been good against the run (3.9 yards per rush – 11th), but that’s hardly an area of concern for them heading into this contest. At 3.6 yards per rush and 100 total rushing yards per game, New Orleans is not a particularly intimidating opponent. I covered the Saints’ defense against the run (note: it’s not very good) in the spread post, and that’s what I like about the Atlanta offense.
In any case, the defense was probably not the focus during the break week. With the return of Desmond Ridder – the QB they had all the plans laid out for heading into this season – the Falcons’ offense is free to play. Arthur Smith and the Falcons staff know that New Orleans is stingy with the pass, so I expect a lot of trickery and individual playmaking in this big matchup. Ultimately, the winner takes command of the NFC South when it’s over. The motivation is there.
I don’t have that much confidence in the Saints’ offense, but at some point the dam has to break. They have too much talent – Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Taysom Hill, and just like their rival on Sunday, I can see the Saints offense planning something unique for this big NFC South battle. The NFL has been full of unders all season (61.3% ATS in non-OT games), but that is the definition of a regression game.
Be sure to check out our full New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons predictions
Andrew Ortenberg: Tennessee Titans -3.5 over Carolina Panthers (-110)
This isn’t exactly the main matchup of Week 12 as the Tennessee Titans prepare to host the Carolina Panthers, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still find some opportunities to add value. And in this game, I think the value lies with Will Levis and the Titans. Tennessee has taken a beating in the market as they have suffered three straight losses, but now is the time to buy cheap. All three of those losses came on the road, and for a rookie quarterback like Levis, playing three straight road games against three strong defenses was a difficult task. Now he finally gets to play a home game against a 1-9 Panthers team. Carolina has been pretty lifeless for a while now and first overall pick Bryce Young hasn’t shown nearly as much flashes as Levis, although Levis only recently took over the starting job while Young has been the starter since Week 1.
Last week, Young recorded seven sacks while averaging just 4.2 yards per attempt. The Panthers are 0-5 on the road this season, with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits. Conversely, the Titans are 3-1 at home this year despite their overall disappointing season, suggesting they have a pretty real home advantage. And their only home loss was a one-possession game against a Ravens team that is one of the best in the league. DeAndre Hopkins has been rejuvenated by Levis’ deployment at center and should have more success here against a somewhat banged up Panthers defense that was largely underwhelmed even when healthy.
Be sure to check out our full Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans predictions
John Martin: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 over Baltimore Ravens (-110)
The reality is that a big part of successful NFL betting is backing underperforming teams against better ones when space (and numbers) warrant it. It never necessarily feels good. I think that’s what we’re doing here with the Chargers against Baltimore. I’ve made this point before, but I think it’s worth making it again. The role you assign to a team is so important. It’s one thing to score 3.5 points on this volatile Chargers team. It’s quite another matter to simply ask them to cover a shorter number in a disappointing defeat at home.
Baltimore is without a doubt one of the best teams in the NFL. Their DVOA numbers bear that out, but those DVOA numbers, at least offensively, were all with Mark Andrews at the bottom. He’s a safety valve for Lamar Jackson and a nightmare for the mismatched center, and there’s no obvious replacement. I am convinced that Baltimore would have lost the game against Cincinnati last Thursday if not for Joe Burrow’s injury. The Chargers, on the other hand, are in a now-or-never situation. For their coach and their playoff hopes. The Ravens should be very excited about their chances of winning the division with two starting quarterbacks out this season and Kenny Pickett bringing in a starting quarterback. This feels like a point where the Ravens could ease up a bit and perhaps give the Chargers some time.
It should also be said that most of the Chargers’ defensive problems have come from the pass, not the run, which is what Baltimore specializes in. Lamar has played very well at times this season, but this is his first full game without his favorite target and he’s doing it on the go. Maybe the Chargers are laying an egg, but Justin Herbert should be able to do enough at home to keep his team within the field goal here and keep his season alive.
Be sure to check out our full Baltimore Ravens vs. LA Chargers predictions for Sunday Night Football
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