We analyze our favorite NBA player props and best bets for Thursday based on the best NBA odds.
For the second game in a row, a Los Angeles Clippers player cost us a win as we took another 2-1 lead. First it was an assist prop from Paul George, and on Wednesday it was an assist prop from Kawhi Leonard.
We may have to bench the Clippers’ mainstays for a while while we re-evaluate the numbers following the addition of James Harden to the starting lineup. Thanks to Kristaps Porzingis and Julius Randle for getting the green checkmarks and giving us 0.79 units on Wednesday.
There are only two games on Thursday, with the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks both playing back-to-back. The highlight of the list is the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic meeting in Mexico City, and we have a player prop from that game.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Thursday (odds via our top NBA betting sites; confidence picks based on a 1-5 star scale).
The NBA schedule and odds for Thursday
(Odds via BetMGM)
Thursday’s best NBA bets
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Thursday’s NBA player props
Paolo Banchero Under 21.5 points vs. Hawks (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Exactly a week ago I sold you a Banchero over for his point prop, and since then he has hit the over in three games in a row. The difference between last Thursday and this Thursday is that Banchero’s score went from 16.5 to 21.5, and that’s a whole different probability we’re dealing with.
Aside from increasing his overall numbers, the Hawks have plenty of defensive contests they can use against Banchero to disrupt his offensive game. First of all, Jalen Johnson is someone who can keep up with Banchero’s combination of size and speed.
The Hawks could also throw Dejounte Murray and De’Andre Hunter on Banchero to give him a different look, and all of those wing defenders will also be protected at the rim on defense with help from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. The bottom line is that Banchero has to rely mostly on his jump shot to top his point total, and that was the weak part of his game.
Banchero is projected to score 20.9 points against the Hawks on Thursday, meaning we can value the under-21.5 at -130, but he’s available at -105 via DraftKings. Based on our forecast, this bet has a positive expected value of 10%.
DraftKings
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The best NBA bets were made on 11/9/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET
NBA betting odds sites
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