We’re just two months away from the Los Angeles Rams conquering Super Bowl LVI, and I still find myself counting down the 155 days left until the start of the 2022 NFL season.
Luckily we don’t have to wait that long to bet on football.
Team futures markets are available to bettors who like to bet on early predictions, and activity is set to increase at an increasing rate in the coming weeks. The NFL draft is a little over three weeks away and prop markets are set to grow steadily.
NFL draft betting requires a different approach than during the season as the market behaves very differently than in the fall. Odds are extremely volatile, with mock drafts and NFL insiders carrying enough weight to cause massive shifts. Rather than relying on advanced metrics, Bettors track reporting accuracy from media members, team requirements, and draft history from general managers.
Identifying relationships between NFL and collegiate teams or coaches can be valuable. When an NFL team chooses between two players, it makes more sense to select the player from a program with which they have trusted connections. By connecting the dots and separating the signal from the noise, you can give yourself a competitive edge this time of year.
The news cycle and speculative reports slowly accelerate each week until they spiral out of control in the days leading up to the draft. While it’s still very early in the process, it’s a very good time to pick a few valuable spots that might be vulnerable to changes in the market. Here are the two draft props I snagged this morning that are worth a bet at the current price.
#2 Overall Pick – Malik Willis (+400)
There are 53 players on an NFL roster. There’s the quarterback, and then there’s everyone else. The position is far too valuable for the Lions to stay at the front of the draft. Willis has the physical tools and potential to be picked second pick. With the arm strength of Josh Allen and the mobility of Lamar Jackson, the risk of wasting Willis’s potential is greater than the worst-case scenario of not making him the new face of the franchise.
The story goes on
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – MARCH 3: Malik Willis #QB16 of the Liberty Flames throws during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 3, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Projecting it to the next level is more difficult due to the competition he’s faced and his supporting cast at Liberty, but Dan Campbell’s new Detroit culture fits together pretty well. USA Today’s Robert Zeglinski pointed out that the improving offensive line and Jared Goff’s veteran presence were two factors that would positively impact Willis’ development. The Lions offensive line ranked 12th last season, just above the Colts, in adjusted sack rate. Goff offers them the luxury of being patient with Willis’ development, while the offensive line assures him of adequate protection once he’s ready.
I think it’s good value to get Willis at that price point to go for second place with the Lions. NFL teams don’t usually step out on the streets when it comes to football’s most important position. You’ll hear general managers repeat the same phrase over and over again when discussing drafting or trading for a quarterback: “If he’s your man, get him.” The Lions don’t have to go anywhere.
Ahmad Gardner’s Draft Position – Under 7.5 (-135)
It trumps this early in odds of -135, but the 57% implied probability is too low. One of the best cornerback prospects to come out in recent years, Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner fills a much-needed position for some top-seven teams. Gardner never allowed a single touchdown in coverage during his three-year career in Cincinnati. In recent mock drafts, he’s gotten down to fourth overall with the Jets, who are in dire need of help in the secondary school. Robert Saleh’s defense ranked last in the EPA allowed per dropback in 2021. Gardner would provide an immediate upgrade.
If Gardner slips past the Jets, the other team in New York gets a shot at him at No. 5 and No. 7 overall. The bet is redeemed there. The ghost of former General Manager Dave Gettleman still haunts the G-Men. Salary caps have forced them to buy their best cornerback. James Bradberry’s impending departure necessitates Gardner being called up as a more financially responsible upgrade. Exiting Day 1 with Ahmad Gardner and a top offensive lineman in the draft would be an impressive start for the new regime in New York. It’s a solid bet they’re going in that direction.
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