Best futures bets NFL Week 6: Packers Plus price convinces, but beware of Titans | NFL and NCAA betting tips

• PFF simulations show no current Packers advantage to win the NFC North (+110), but this could be the right time to buy into Aaron Rodgers and Co. with plus money.

• Be careful with the Titans (+185), who go bye on a three-game win streak (over teams with a 4-10-1 record) but pass on average (17th in EPA/dropback) and the injured tip Choose Treylon Burks.

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Last updated: Tue Oct 11 2:15pm

Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

Although we had more than six months to bet on NFL futures before the start of the season, the market is always active and there are some opportunities to make some money by looking at a team from a macro perspective. After Week 5, here are some of the biggest changes in the AFC South and NFC North futures markets.

AFC South Division Winners Market

team	Odds before week 5	Odds after week 5
jaguars	+175	+225
foal	+180	+160
Titans	+200	+185

• After a very disappointing loss to the modest Houston Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars dropped to third place in the division race: And they now end up basically where they were pre-season. Jacksonville looked like the best team in the division after a 2-1 start (including a shutout win over the Indianapolis Colts), but two straight losses once again put them behind Indianapolis and the Tennessee Titans. Trevor Lawrence didn’t look like the quarterback he was in Weeks 1-3, putting together two consecutive sub-65 passing grade performances.

• The Colts are now AFC South favorites: Despite such poor offensive performance as we’ve seen lately, especially on national television. In the 16-9 win over the Denver Broncos, Matt Ryan averaged a .28 EPA/game and a passing grade of 42.2. Of even more concern is the Colts’ offensive line, which gave up 25 pressure points despite starting the game with an inside combination for more than $50 million in average APY.

• The market doesn’t think the Titans’ current three-game winning streak is that impressive — and I’d rather agree: While our Sims are showing an advantage in Tennessee, the advice here is cautious as the Titans have clinched three straight one-point wins against teams with an overall record of 4-10-1 and are now without Treylon Burks, who is injured already average pass attack (17th in EPA/dropback).

NFC North Division winning market

team	Odds before week 5	Odds after week 5
packer	-130	+110
viking	+125	-125

• The market basically flipped the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings after Week 5: Mainly because there are serious problems on both sides of the ball with the Packers at the moment. Her defense was the focus of the offseason with two invested first-round picks, but she didn’t live up to the hype, finishing 16th in EPA/Play Allowed and showing up, as it seems to have almost every year lately the bottom 5 in EPA/rush and allowable success rate.

• Offensively, the Packers seem too one-dimensional: Aaron Rodgers either threw to the flat route from an RPO or threw it deep in Sunday’s shocking loss to the New York Giants. He’s in the bottom 5 in both Time to Throw and ADOT, meaning there’s no interlude at all for the Packers right now. It’s almost like the offense hurts without Davante Adams. I still like that this team finds out before the playoffs start. They’re too talented not to, and it should help keep guys like left tackle David Bakhtiari and wide receiver Sammy Watkins in full health.

• Minnesota is now favored to win the NFC North — and for good reasons: 3-0 in the division, Justin Jefferson looks like the OPOY, and the Packers weren’t great. But it’s hard to buy into the Vikings at this price point. They come from straight one-point wins, including two games they probably shouldn’t have been victorious in against the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions. In fact, Minnesota trailed once in the fourth quarter behind the Lions and the Chicago Bears — two teams that likely won’t make the playoffs this season.

• While their offense was fine, the Vikings’ defense was not good: 20th in EPA/game allowed, 27th in hit rate allowed, and they allowed the Bears to come to Minnesota and score 22 points despite surpassing the 20-point threshold in one other game all year.

• Our Sims show no current advantage over the Packers: But this could be a good opportunity to buy into them with plus money if you think Aaron Rodgers and LaFleur will figure it out by the end of the season.