The 76ers came this close to overcoming the hump this year.
All they needed was James Harden’s legs to age about three years backwards, Joel Embiid to avoid suffering thumb, face and head injuries in the first round of the playoffs, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey to be like them anytime best versions of themselves, and maybe Jimmy Butler, who stayed in a Sixers uniform three years ago.
It wouldn’t have needed more. Man they were so close.
But here’s the Sixers, heading into another offseason after a winning bout and a losing bout of playoff action, looking for new answers to the same question: How do they build a championship-caliber team around their MVP-caliber center before its window closes?
The good news is that Ben Simmons won’t be hovering over everything like he was a year ago. The bad news is that General Manager Daryl Morey will have a hard time finding the right little pieces of the puzzle until he deals with two different main questions hanging over the entire operation:
- Will Doc Rivers be the coach of this team – and if not, who will it be?
- Will Harden be back – and if so, at what cost?
Morey said Friday that both will remain part of the 2022-23 Sixers. But before we take that at face value, we should probably stop and consider how idiotic it would be to literally say otherwise publicly. You don’t tell your significant other, “I’m pretty sure I’m going to break up with you soon.” You fake a smile until it’s time to do the dumping.
The 76ers opened last season at Pennsylvania’s sportsbook at a price of between +1600 and +2000 to win the NBA championship. Her odds dropped to +550 after trading for Harden in February. In the end, however, it didn’t matter what prize a Sixers bettor fetched. Hey, that’s the case for title tickets at 29 teams every year.
Over the next few months, Morey will be the central figure in deciding whether the next season will be any different for this particular franchise.
Doctor? Dusk? jay? K?
As the co-host of the popular Ricky Sanchez Rights podcast since it started in 2013, Spike Eskin has spent more time than anyone thinking and talking about what’s right and wrong for the Sixers in this “Process” era what went wrong. So we asked him to set some odds on key Sixers off-season markets, starting with whether Rivers will be back.
Eskin puts fair odds at at least +400 if Rivers returns for a third season as head coach of the Sixers. “My feeling is that both parties want to move on,” said Eskin, whose podcast counts DraftKings Sportsbook among its sponsors.
So, with Doc out the door, who could replace him as the 76ers’ new coach? Some eye-catching names have been featured on local media and social media, including recently retired Villanova coach Jay Wright, Philadelphia-born South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley — like Wright, a two-time Naismith Prize winner — and even just – Mike Krzyzewski, retired Duke icon coach.
Eskin doesn’t buy any of it. He considers Wright a roughly 10/1 longshot, Staley at least 15/1 or 20/1, and Coach K roughly 100/1.
“If you look at Morey historically and you see Tad Brown, the CEO who came off the Rockets, it just seems unlikely to me that he would do such an important job with someone he has no history with,” Eskin said. “I can’t see any connection between Morey and Jay Wright. I would be shocked if it was Jay Wright. I’d be more shocked if it was Dawn Staley. And of course, Coach K is the longest recording of them all — but our podcast downloads would be through the roof on this episode.”
For more realistic coaching candidates with recognizable names, two from Eskin stand out: Mike D’Antoni and current Rivers assistant Sam Cassell.
“Embiid wanted D’Antoni first, and Morey has a history with him,” Eskin pointed out. “Sam Cassell is a former point guard, which seems to be a good thing for head coaches. He seems to have a great relationship with the players, also has a connection with Morey and is familiar with the players who are already on the team.”
beard markets
If Morey and Sixers fans thought they’d trade for something close to 2018’s MVP Harden, they’ve learned the hard way over the past three months that that player is gone and will never return. However, some believe that with more time to regroup with his Philly teammates and more time to fully recover from an ongoing hamstring injury that may have hampered his performance in 2022, Harden is what we’ve just seen , could improve to some extent.
Where Morey goes from here with Harden characters to be crucial. The Sixers could let him go. They could sign him to a one-year deal (probably at a hefty price). Or they could sign him on a longer term contract (probably for less money per year).
Eskin thinks the one-year option is about a -300 favorite. He believes a long-term contract of around three years/$100 million is around +600, and Harden, who doesn’t sign with the Sixers at all, is north of +900.
“Honestly, from a relationship management perspective,” Eskin analyzed, “it’s probably better to keep him on the long-term than basically tell him you’re not interested by asking him to put up a one-year deal if his future is in.” Visibility is air anyway. In the end, I’d say there’s about a 1 in 10 chance that he won’t be in the Sixers next year.”
What title quotas or Em VP quotas would you need?
None of the sportsbooks have 2023 futures markets left – these should emerge once a 2022 champion is crowned – but it’s never too early to start thinking about what good Sixers futures value looks like.
So what price would Eskin need now to bet on the Sixers winning it all in all this offseason uncertainty?
“I’m usually pretty pessimistic about their chances. Going into the playoffs this year, I thought there was literally zero percent chance they would win the title,” he said.
“For them to win the title next year, you’re either betting on a trade that we don’t see coming or multiple injuries at other teams. I think +2000, the price they started last year is too short. Something like +3000 I assume there is a value. But I don’t think I can put them in the same place that Boston or Milwaukee or even Phoenix or Dallas is right now. I can’t see them beating more than one of these teams in a seven-game series in a playoff run.
“Their two best players – Harden isn’t capable of that, and Embiid gets injured every year in the playoffs. In a way, Embiid could almost benefit from having an early-season injury that keeps him out for six weeks, and they’re staying afloat because he just seems so broken at the end of each year. The problem is they are so bad with him off the pitch. They end up being a play-in team if he misses 30 games.
And while Embiid could shave miles off the odometer early in the season, the team could benefit, but such a scenario would decrease their chances of improving their back-to-back MVP runners-up finishes.
Still, Eskin sees the Sixers’ big man as the second-likeliest contender for top individual honors next season. But he also sees a massive rift between Embiid and the No. 1 candidate.
‘You’re going to want to give it to Luka [Doncic] next year,” Eskin said. “They’ve been wanting to give it to Luka for two years now. I think it will be difficult for Giannis [Antetokounmpo] to win it. It becomes almost impossible for [Nikola] Jokic to win it.
“So in my mind it boils down to Embiid or Luka but Lukas is going to be a pretty prohibitive favorite. If you could get Luka at +300 or +400 I’d bet every penny on it. I think he would have to get injured not to win it next year. I feel like every writer is dying to do it, and now the fact that it made the playoffs somewhere will give them an excuse to do it next year.
“To put Embiid for MVP I probably need +750 or something to feel like there’s any value.”
Photo: Bill Streitcher/USA TODAY
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