In the latest Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast, Betz and I walked all over the AFC looking for values for DraftKing’s Sportsbook for earnings totals and other NFL futures markets.
For those who need a visual, here’s all 16 teams broken down, as well as our favorite games for those teams in early May. This Friday we tackle the NFC.
AFC East
buffalo bills– The public loves them and sportsbooks adore them as Super Bowl favorites. The juice on the over (-130) feels terrifying when you know how many things can go wrong in a season. However, these Bills went 11-6 last season and fell short with an AA of 13.1! Their schedule is one of the toughest in the league, including an overall battle on the road and tough 1st place matches against TEN, @KC and @LAR. I’ll wait for Buffalo because there isn’t much value on their current lines, but as the season progresses you’ll likely get better values for the AFC and Super Bowl futures.
Miami Dolphins– There’s a lot of offseason hype at the Dolphins after trading for Tyreek Hill, getting a new attacking head coach and making a splash with LT Terron Armstead in free agency. If we look at their schedule, my initial schedule-adjusted predictions (which came out before these overall wins were released) had the Dolphins at 8.5 wins. As Betz discussed on the DFS podcast, when a prediction aligns with what sportsbooks publish, we moderate our thoughts on a team when we know there are multiple points to failure. We either don’t play over/under lines like this or we under them. Your schedule for the “3. Platz” includes tough street games with the Chargers and 49ers, as well as match-ups with NFC and AFC North. Excitement about the dolphins is warranted, but our forecasts are looking a bit more so-so as they get closer to schedule
New England Patriots– The Patriots are very close to the Dolphins in almost every market. However, their bottom could be higher, but what’s the ceiling for this team? 10-11 wins? It’s hard to figure out what the Patriots are like in a tough AFC and after an NFL draft, which has mostly been poked fun at for their unorthodox ways. I stay away from New England.
New York Jets– At the other end of the spectrum, the Jets were the NFL Draft darling with three first-round picks that the consensus adores. But does it help them in the win column? The line is fairly efficient at 5.5 and has a tough road plan despite being a 4th place team. The over is clearly the most attractive, but it’s hard to buy this juice (-145) given what we saw from Zach Wilson a year ago.
The Jets were the most popular over bet at @CaesarsSports. Their overall victory of 5.5 ensures a lot of action. It is the most popular bet by both tickets and dollars wagered at Caesars. The Jets have 43 percent more tickets on their over than the next best team.
— Brian Costello (@BrianCoz) May 12, 2022
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengal– The Bengals came out of nowhere last year and made it to the Super Bowl. They blew their DK Sportsbook win out of the water overall (6.5). It’s surprising to see how balanced the books have been with this exciting young team. The line is solid and they are actually second in their own division. It’s hard to expect the same kind of post-season magic, so fading the AFC and Super Bowl ratings feels easy. With FanDuel, the ending doesn’t bother me, but at the end of the day this feels like a staging or a nudge.
Cleveland Browns– You can see the huge question marks on the board for the Browns surrounding Deshaun Watson’s upcoming(?) suspension. Yes, we don’t know how long or if he will be suspended. But the fact that DK Sportsbook names them division favorites is somewhat revealing, and working through their difficult schedule I put them on 10 wins. That feels like a solid line considering where the Bengals are. If Watson is suspended they are likely to land around the 7.5 mark. Regardless, people blindly betting on Browns futures are likely to burn their money.
Pittsburgh Steelers– The Steelers are one of the more difficult teams to project. Your winning total (7.5) is low enough when there is an over in play. However, with a rookie QB and big longshot odds (+850) to win a tough division, there’s a tough road ahead. Remember this team was a playoff roster last year with the dead body of Ben Roethlisberger. At the end of the day, there are too many question marks along with a second place schedule that is not forgiving enough to be confident here.
Baltimore Ravens– “Our ravens”, as we have been calling them since our April 1 episode of DFS, are among the best stocks on the board for the futures markets this year. At +225 to win the AFC North, you’ll get them at a great price considering DK consider them a playoff team. While there’s still some juice left for the over (-130), the Ravens have a 4th place finish, a hopefully healthy core of offensive talent led by Lamar Jackson, and arguably one of the smartest organizations in the NFL. Betz wrote an entire article on why the 2022 Baltimore Ravens are primed for a bounce back when you need more convincing.
Mark Brown/Getty Images
AFC South
Tennessee Titans– After a brave 12-win season that somehow landed them No. 1 in the AFC, you can tell the Titans and Mike Vrabel are in class. They have a tough road ahead in 2022 including a 1st place schedule including CIN, BUF and GB. Aside from tying the AFC West and losing AJ Brown this year, I’m back to fading the Titans this year. Their “No to make the playoffs” at -110 is the best value in my opinion.
Indianapolis Colts– Betz and I used the Colts as our example on the DFS podcast a few weeks ago. I recently wrote about their prospects in Forecasting the NFL & Win Totals Strategy if you want another in-depth look at this team. +100 to win the AFC South seems like the best bet on the board.
Jacksonville Jaguars– The win total has been set at six, which is an enticing number. The biggest question is how much is it worth NOT having Urban Meyer? In a division that is extremely winnable, +650 to win the division isn’t the worst longshot bet you can make. Betz says that despite the juice, he doesn’t mind having six wins to his disposal.
Houston Texans– 3.5 wins… can they do it? On the podcast, we went through the Texans’ 2022 schedule looking for four wins. Even with the -175 juice on FanDuel, four wins in a 17-game season is downright disrespectful. There’s a 63 percent implied probability of the over and Betz likes it more in line with 70 percent.
AFC West
Kansas City chiefs– Betting against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes is not recommended for your long-term heart health. The Chiefs pushed last year with 12 wins and Andy Reid has a crazy past hitting the over with Kansas City.
Chiefs NEVER disappoint under Andy Reid! #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/bfcV0sJbZc
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) May 2, 2021
However, there are multiple ways down as the line was pushed down from 12 to 11.5 early. The Chiefs have the toughest schedule and running the gauntlet to start the season with their first eight games against teams with winning records in 2021. This is a distance and also an opportunity to invest as their conference and Super Bowl odds should be enticing as the season progresses.
Denver Broncos– I jumped on the Broncos to win the AFC West at +260. It’s shocking that their odds are behind the Chargers in every market as Russell Wilson alone is worth 2-2.5 wins. They have a 4th place schedule and my early adjusted projections had put them on a healthy 10.75 wins, the most in this division. Take the value of the division odds or the over (10) at DK Sportsbook.
Chargers from Los Angeles– The public loves the chargers. Back in March, Andy posted this AFTER the news from Russell Wilson and Davante Adams.
Let’s see what you think. Who will win the AFC West
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) March 26, 2022
The acquisition is heartbreaking for a team that consistently falls short of massive expectations. The long shot bets are still worth pursuing, but the winning total is about right. They’re easily one of the most talented teams in the NFL and one that we’ll be talking about almost every week on DFS.
Las Vegas robbers– Last year, the Raiders were among the happiest teams in the NFL with a 10-7 win expectancy of 6.9. It killed my bankroll when I got the wins below 7.5. Regardless, the under for the Raiders at 8.5 in the NFL’s toughest division makes a lot of sense.
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