Russell Evans
More than 200 business leaders and community dignitaries gathered in the Dr. Carolyn Taylor Center to the rustic sound of holiday classics for the annual “State of the Economy” luncheon presented by Claremore Economic Development on Wednesday, December 6th.
Dr. Russell Evans, chief economist at Thorberg Collectorate, delivered the keynote address, covering topics and scenarios from inflation reduction to consumer spending.
Before Evans takes the stage, CIEDA Executive Director Meggie Froman-Knight shares some data points and revenue reports: Over $550,000 in new tax revenue was generated in 2023 from large retail contracts, and more than $100,000 in new small business tax revenue was generated recorded since the beginning of the year. Additionally, $3.48 million was generated through the Baker Hughes TIF (Tax Increment Financing) to help fund municipal infrastructure projects.
Evans' presentation delved into the national economic climate, the impact of inflation, and trends in consumer wages and spending.
“We are all waiting for financial reality to set in,” he said.
He acknowledged that since the pandemic, costs have skyrocketed everywhere as inflation has risen sharply.
“We can see in 2023 that third quarter GDP is up to 5.2% of annual growth, but we look at two data sets that give us two different answers: If you think GDP is strong, it must be “Policy responds and adapts accordingly, but if you believe that GDP is not growing faster or not growing strongly, then the policy does not have to be reactionary,” Evans said.
Overall, Evans believes there is still a long way to go as the US steers the ship back to reality.
“The economy is slowing… and it still feels like we're still in for some disruption. “The labor market slowdown and the landing, whether soft or hard, are still ahead of us,” he said.
The bottom line is that even as the threat of a mild recession looms, those who can and are taking financial responsibility should continue to do so. Interest rates are expected to fall slightly and consumer spending to rise. As more jobs emerge in Rogers County, the need for more housing options and expensive items will increase.
“Often we can check the temperature by asking whether the Fed is fearful or hopeful, and lately they've been sounding hopeful,” Evans said. “They are on a golden path where financial markets are no longer doing the heavy lifting that they had to do in the not-too-distant past.”
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