By DAVE WILLIAMS, Capitol Beat News Service
ATLANTA — The economic growth Georgia experienced this year will slow in 2024 but not enough to trigger a recession, the dean of the Terry College of Business at the University of Georgia said Monday.
“Georgia is well-positioned to weather an economic downturn, and our economy will outperform the U.S. economy,” Ben Ayers told a packed ballroom at the Georgia Aquarium to kick off UGA’s annual Georgia Economic Outlook series. “Our economy will not go bankrupt.”
Ayers said he expects Georgia's gross domestic product to grow 1.1% in 2024, less than the 3% growth the Peach State posted this year but well above the sluggish national growth rate of 0.8% , which economists forecast for 2024.
The number of jobs in Georgia will grow 0.7% next year, slower than the 2.3% increase estimated for Georgia in 2023 but higher than the national job growth rate of just 0.3%, Ayers predicted .
Ayers said demographics and the large number of economic development projects in the pipeline are key factors in supporting Georgia's economy. The state's population grew 1.2% last year and is expected to double the country's growth in 2024, he said.
Meanwhile, Georgia completed a record 426 economic development projects this year, the third consecutive year the state has set a record in the category.
Ayers said he expects the state's unemployment rate to rise next year from 3.4% this year, but only to 4%.
Inflation, which reached 8% last year, will be halved to 4% this year, Ayers said. He said he expected inflation to fall further to 2.5% by the end of 2024.
Ayers said risks to Georgia's economy include ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, possible stock market disruptions, further labor unrest or a government shutdown. But none of that would likely be enough to trigger a recession, he said.
Avery Shenfeld, managing director and chief economist at CIBC, a Chicago-based commercial banking firm, offered a similar economic forecast for the country. He predicted that the U.S. will not slip into recession even if inflation continues to cool from a 40-year high.
The consumer price index has fallen to 4%, but is still well above the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2%.
“We were able to cool inflation without slowing economic growth,” Shenfeld said.
Shenfeld predicted that sluggish economic growth in the third quarter of next year should pick up towards the end of the year.
“It will end with lower inflation and therefore lower interest rates,” he said.
The Georgia Economic Outlook series continues next month and in February with programs in Athens, Albany, Augusta, Columbus, Jekyll Island, Macon and Savannah.
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