According to PolskieRadio24.pl, the decision by the Russian authorities in mid-September to carry out partial mobilization will not only have a social impact, but will also continue to affect the Russian economy.
While official releases indicate that around 300,000 have been mobilized, The unofficial numbers could be much larger, even reaching a million.
Some of those mobilized are specialists – doctors, pilots, engineers or students of specialized subjects. Her departure particularly affects Russia’s future economic potential. The country is also shifting civilian production to the military, which means more costs to the budget and diversion of private sector production.
Mobilization also means increased fear and insecurity. Under such conditions consumption, especially of luxury goods, will continue to decline.
According to experts from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), “the increase in military production masked the collapse of industry in Russia.”
“The high efficiency of the industry is primarily the result of increased production for the military. Such a move could prove deadly for the economy in the long run. Production of pharmaceuticals rose 28 percent and metal products by 50 percent, while civilian production collapsed – Vehicle production fell 48 percent and automotive parts fell 39 percent,” They write.
🇷🇺 – Sanctions against Russia are working very well
• Real GDP, retail and vehicle manufacturing are all falling off a cliff
• Russia heading into ~6% recession this year (a worse downturn than after the first sanctions in 2014-15) pic.twitter.com/t5q2idTozG
— Agathe Demarais (@AgatheDemarais) October 10, 2022 The greatest loss to the Russian economy is the flight of skilled workers. More than a million people, mostly between the ages of 25 and 44, may have left the country since mobilization – the largest wave of emigration from Russia since the collapse of the USSR.
The proportion of people with higher education among the emigrants is up to 80 percent, according to data.
The short-term effects of this phenomenon are difficult to assess. longer term, it will deprive Russia of around 3-4 percent of its total workforce if the migration wave continues. Given that only 30 percent of the population has tertiary education, and 80 percent of immigrants are of this type, this will be an unprecedented blow to the Russian economy.
Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, head of the Center for the Study of Post-Industrial Society, believes this is the most optimistic scenario expects GDP to fall by 10 percent this year.”
Source:
PolskieRadio24
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