A woman pushes a stroller in front of the United States Supreme Court in Washington, the United States, May 17, 2021.
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WASHINGTON, May 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) – If the economy had driven election results, the Republican Party would be in a good place when America next goes to the polls in November. But the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion in which judges argued that Roe v. Abolishing Wade’s 1973 constitutional right to abortion has changed the dynamic.
Biden’s economic record was a gift to opponents of his ruling Democratic Party. Inflation is the biggest sign against him. The consumer price index rose 8.5% for the year through March, according to the Labor Department, in what was happily dubbed “biden inflation” by several Republican candidates looking to win or retain seats in Congress in November. Even higher-income individuals who make at least $100,000 a year say rising prices will force them to reconsider financial decisions, according to an April CNBC/Momentive poll.
In his first year, the incumbent president also failed to keep campaign promises, such as meeting the rich. It has failed to raise taxes on the wealthy and on corporations, even dropping low-hanging fruit such as removing the carried interest loophole that lowers the tax burden on private equity executives. Plans to support small and medium-sized businesses, such as childcare assistance, have also fallen by the wayside.
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It’s a 1990s truism that “the economy, dumbass” drives the voters. But Monday’s leak from the Supreme Court has shifted the conversation to a topic where economic factors hardly influence opinions. A Reuters/Ipsos poll later in the week found that as many as 49% of Republicans are more likely to support pro-choice candidates. About 62% of voters living in suburbs disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, but almost as many believe abortion should be legal, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll in April.
Social problems have caused election surprises in the past. In the tight 2004 presidential race, Republicans got a boost after 11 states rolled out ballot initiatives to ban same-sex marriage, drawing particularly conservative voters in battlegrounds like Ohio. Social issues are likely to introduce a joker again this year. The economy is still important, but a little less than it was a week ago.
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(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. Opinions expressed are her own.)
CONTEXT NEWS
– US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts said on May 5 the leak of a draft memorandum advocating removing the constitutional right to abortion was “absolutely appalling”. The rare disclosure came on May 2nd.
– A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted the following day found that 63% of voters, including 49% Republicans, would be more likely to support pro-abortion candidates in the Nov. 8 midterm elections than about a third would support Senate seats and all seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs.
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Edited by John Foley, Sharon Lam and Pranav Kiran
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