Community college enrollment has declined. Here's what will happen to workers and the U.S. economy if it doesn't come back

Washington, D.C
CNN
—

Community colleges offer access to post-secondary education at a significantly lower cost compared to four-year universities. But even as employers across the country struggle to find qualified workers, community college enrollment is showing little recovery from two decades of steady decline and an even steeper decline when the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

According to the National Student Clearinghouse, things have finally turned around for community colleges as enrollment numbers increase in the spring and fall semesters. However, if this recovery does not continue, there could be economic consequences in the coming years, such as labor shortages in certain sectors and mergers of two-year schools.

Demand for certain occupations such as electricians and healthcare assistants is expected to remain stable or even increase in the coming years. Community colleges offer training programs and degrees for exactly these types of careers.

A report from Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce predicts that by 2031, “72 percent of U.S. jobs will require post-secondary education and/or training.”

Yet enrollment at two-year schools is still well below pre-pandemic levels. The same is true at four-year universities, where enrollment has also been steadily declining, which only increased during the pandemic.

There are a few possible reasons why community college enrollment in particular has declined so sharply. One is attributed to the strength of the U.S. labor market in recent years, suggesting that some students are not attending school because they are taking advantage of the abundance of higher-wage jobs available.

Another possible reason is the growing demand for jobs that require a bachelor's degree, so students may transfer from community colleges or choose four-year schools from the start.

As for the long-term decline in enrollment, there is no clear answer, but it could also be due to the strength of the labor market even before the pandemic. Unemployment was at an all-time low in 2019 and there were many job vacancies this year, according to government data.

Community college remains affordable, but some students simply won't accept it. According to the College Board, the average cost of tuition and fees for residents at a two-year public community college was $3,860 in the 2022-2023 school year.

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, there were approximately 11 million students enrolled in community colleges in 2010. In the 2021-2022 school year, that number has shrunk to 6.7 million. It is well known that community college enrollment increased after the Great Recession because people decided to get an education while weathering the downturn in hopes of finding a good job once the economy rebounded started.

The National Student Clearinghouse reported in October that community college enrollment increased 4.4% this fall, accounting for nearly 60% of the increase in students this semester. The nonprofit education organization said community colleges are “beginning to recover from the pandemic.”

But the key word there is: “Start”. In 2021 and 2022, community college enrollment declined sharply across the country.

Gad Levanon, chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute, said the declines in those years could be due to students enrolled in two-year colleges who probably would have just stayed there and not graduated, but simply opted out because that's what they were into Given the hot job market in recent years, it's not easy to take a job instead.

Job growth this year was driven by employers in health care, government, hospitality, professional services and construction, according to Labor Department data.

There are many jobs that don't require a degree, and obviously many workers are happy to take them. However, demand for jobs that require a college degree or technical training and typically pay better is expected to increase in the future.

Here's the bad news for community colleges: The Georgetown report also argues that “the fastest-growing industries require workers with disproportionately higher levels of education compared to slower-growing industries.”

This could have a negative impact on community colleges if this high demand for workers with a bachelor's degree is only expected to increase in the future, as there will also be strong demand for workers in the skilled trades.

“There are a growing number of middle-skill jobs and opportunities, particularly related to infrastructure jobs,” said Nicole Smith, chief economist at the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown.

“If the number of people enrolled in community colleges starts to decline again, that's concerning because we may have fewer and fewer people available for post-high school jobs in health care, food, personal services or truck driving standing and manufacturing,” she said, adding that these types of jobs account for about a third of all jobs in the United States.

Keep in mind that community college enrollment has declined sharply in recent years, with the exception of 2023.

If there are not enough workers willing to be trained to repair electrical wiring, drive trucks hundreds of miles, operate forklifts, or assist a dentist in cleaning a patient's teeth, this could result in employers having to compete face labor shortages. Small businesses continue to report continued difficulty finding qualified talent, according to monthly surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business.

Omari Swinton, an economics professor at Howard University in Washington, said a stubborn labor shortage could ultimately lead to fewer services being offered.

Swinton has seen the impact of the vexing labor shortage firsthand.

“My dentist can't find a dental assistant, and there are only a few schools in Maryland that offer this training, and their enrollment has gone down, so my dentist has had to keep canceling my appointment because they couldn't find one,” Swinton said.

“People in an industry like this can charge more money for work, and companies have to decide whether they're even willing to pay their workers more money, because at some point you can only pay your workers so much before it's no longer worth their time is.” and effort to do these tasks more,” he said.

Declining enrollment is concerning for community colleges and any institution of higher education because it impacts their finances. This means less tuition revenue, which could impact campus growth plans, the scope of services offered, the ability to hire more faculty, and more.

If a community college is in a difficult financial situation, merging with another two-year institution could be a viable solution, Levanon said.

That's exactly what happened in Connecticut this year.

Due to financial problems and declining enrollment, 12 Connecticut community colleges officially merged this summer to form Connecticut State Community College, a plan that has been in the works for years and is expected to result in more than $40 million in savings.

“This merger was about ensuring we meet the needs of the students we serve. After this vote of confidence from our accreditor, I am more confident than ever that we will be able to provide better, more accessible educational options and improved services,” said Terrence Cheng, president of the Connecticut State College and Universities System in June.

That in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if it means community colleges are able to ease budget pressures.