Some Pairs Still Hanging on to Previous Monthly Trend
By Jay Norris — jnorris@brewerinvestmentgroup.com –
While the Euro and Swissy opened up big leads in reversing thier Monthly trends last week, not all the currencies followed suit. While the current short-term trends for the Daily and Weekly GBPUSD are down, the Monthly trend is still sideways to higher. Similiar situation in USDJPY, where both the short-term Daily & Weekly trends are pointed higher, yet the short-term trend on the Monthly is still pointed lower.
On the Daily chart of GBPUSD below I’ve marked the Weekly trend with the white line, and the Monthly trend below with the maroon line; price is also still above its Monthly Pivot S2 level just above 159.00 which is a likely downside target. There is also the Oct lows, not marked, at approx 157.00. Should price hold that level it would arguably make the Monthly trend sideways to lower, from it’s current sideways to higher.
USDJPY — see chart below — is also a pair where we’ve see the Daily and Weekly short-term trends shift higher but as of last Friday’s close the short-term Monthly trend is still lower. Given Friday’s strong performance, and the likelihood of thin, holiday trade this week we may see a move on that Monthly level just above. A breach of that level at 91.32 would then open the door to a move on Monthly R2 at approx 94.00.
Despite it’s earlier status as the leader of the anti-Greenback pack, and a carry-pair yielding upwards of 3%, AUDUSD fell over 2.3% last week to close below last Month’s low price at 89.08 — see chart below. Though it closed below that level it did not do so convincingly. And while the short-term trend on the Weekly is now lower, it might be wise to hold off on pressing shorts in this pair until we get a more definitive read at month end. Along w/ that Monthly level, price is also right on top of its Monthly S1 Pivot. A monthly close below this confluence of support opens the door to a move on 86.00.
Keep in mind the Monthly Pivot Points we see on these charts will adjust (change) giving us new levels for January
Jay Norris
www.trading-u.com
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