And the Leader is…GBPJPY
Many traders want to believe that there is a commonality which runs through the markets which they can discern and will lead to profitable trading. There certainly are leading indicator markets, but the challange comes in figuring out which markets are going to lead at any particular point in the global business cycle. We understand the impotance of applying parallel analysis to the various markets, which is very similair to using Dow Theory when analysing stock indices and confirming market direction, however we don’t use that as a trade trigger. We teach that a trade trigger, or signal, should be a fact based occurence in an individual market. We don’t disagree that there are relationships between the markets that we can use to confirm, or pass on a particualr trade, but we know that by definition relationships evolve and change, and that they are not always fact based.
GBPJPY is of interest to us now because of its current stance on the higher time frames. It also happened to be a leader on the way up in ‘06 & ‘07 and a leader on the way down last year. We don’t know if that will continue but as of right now the direction is down on both the Daily and Weekly charts and very close to the price point on the Monthly chart which would indicate a shift should it close below it. See TrendMap below.
Jay Norris
www.trading-u.com
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Unless he breaks and stays below 149, this is simply a “correction.” Look for a strong up move in September, breaking through the double top @ 163.
Hi Event Trader,
I agree it is on support now which could prove pivotal. It being so close to month end, and the large double top already in place intriques me.
I TOTALLY AGREE WITH EVENT TRADER AND JAY NORRIS. I AM WAITING FOR MY ENTRY AROUND 15O TARGET 165 BUT I HAVE TO WATCH THE ONE WEEK CCI DEPENDING WHERE IT IS AND IF WE GET REVERSAL CANDLESTICKS, OTHERWISE I MAY JUST WAIT UNTIL WE GET BIG TIME CONFIRMATION. IT COULD VERY WELL GO TO 135.
Who would want to buy pound sterling given the UK’s climate? The SNB showed everyone where they we’re intervening and the currency which trailed big time in their purchases was the sterling. Nobody has any use for it anymore. It’s still the most expensive currency to buy vs. all majors and it’s due to die. 80+ year bear market.
@Emmet (sleep1iopen)
Sorry 30+ year bear market for Gbp/Jpy