Expect Corrections
I sometimes find myself in the unenviable position of being a clearing house for market information. For the most part those of us involved in these exchanges place a disclaimer on them, such as “that, and a token will get you on the bus”, or “that and four dollars will get you a cup of Starbucks”. Another way for a participant to smuggle an opinion into the exchange is by forwarding excerpts of a high priced newsletter. This is a very clever ploy because the point which the member wants to get out is done for him by the newsletter writer, and the member has immunity should the opinion be wrong. He doesn’t even have to slap an “in my humble opinion” to the end of it.
The latest flotsam is actually similar to something I wrote last week but the writer has it backwards. I pointed out on May 6th that:
“Should we see Yen strength (USDJPY weakness) going forward it will be interesting to see if the other major currencies, as well as stock indices, really are on more sound ground than during past bouts of USDJPY weakness”. http://trading-u.com/blog/index.php/archives/date/2009/05/06
Today I received a “special alert” talking about the impending collapse of currencies led by stock indices, minus the usual “that and a buck’an’a’quarter will get you a Snickers bar”. No doubt fear sells. But I can tell you that the news letter writer / analyst who is looking for a repeat of a massive move he missed last year may be reporting what he wants to happen rather than what could happen. You can’t teach intuition in this game and mine is telling me, particularly after scanning what the majority of bloggers are copying, that this sell-off in USDJPY is just signaling a counter-trend correction for everything else and not the end of the financial system. That and a buck will get you a soda pop.
It’s always nice to know what the current trend on the weekly and monthly charts is…
Jay Norris