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European Open EURUSD higher ahead of trade data and CB speakers

Asian indices:

  • Australia’s ASX 200 index fell -5.4 points (-0.07%) and is currently trading at 7,446.80
  • The Japanese Nikkei 225 index is down 174.7 points (-0.59%) and is currently standing at 29,332.35. acted
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is down -17.85 points (-0.07%) and is currently standing at 24,745.92. acted
  • China’s A50 index is down -82.1 points (-0.53%) and currently stands at 15,496.31. acted

UK and Europe:

  • The UK’s FTSE 100 futures are currently down -23 points (-0.32%) with the cash market currently rising to 7,277.40. estimated
  • Euro-STOXX-50-Futures are currently down -18.5 points (-0.43%), the cash market is currently at 4,334.03. estimated
  • Germany’s DAX futures are currently down -49 points (-0.31%), the cash market is currently at 15,997.52. opened

US futures:

  • DJI futures are currently up 104.27 points (0.29%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently down -24 points (-0.15%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -11.5 points (-0.24%)

Indices

Despite a positive start, equity markets across Asia traded lower overnight as investors added positions ahead of this week’s first inflation data from the US. The ASX 200 was an underperformer after weak profits from banks.

Japan’s equity markets were the weakest on the day, with the TOPIX down -0.7% and the Nikkei -0.5%. Traders apparently were blown away by the Japanese government’s announcement that it would provide around 100,000 yen (around $ 870) per child under 18, despite reports of this scenario surfacing over the weekend.

The futures markets are pointing to a lower opening for European indices today.

FTSE 350: Internal market

FTSE 350: 4190.92 (-0.05%) November 8, 2021

  • 133 (37.89%) stocks rose and 210 (59.83%) fell
  • 14 stocks rose to new 52-week highs and 3 fell to new lows
  • 64.1% of the stocks closed above their 200-day average
  • 63.82% of the stocks closed above their 50-day average
  • 21.08% of the shares closed above their 20-day average

Outperformer:

  • + 12.4% -Darktrace-SPS (DARK.L)
  • + 7.06% -Investec PLC (INVP.L)
  • + 5.89% -TI Fluid Systems PLC (TIFS.L)

Underperformer:

  • -5.37% -Baltic Classifieds Group PLC (BCG.L)
  • -4.21% -Discoverie Group PLC (DSCV.L)
  • -3.91% -Sirius Real Estate Ltd (SRET.L)

Currency:

It’s a busy day for central bank speeches. The Fed’s bullard starts at 12:50 p.m., Jerome Powell’s recorded speech at 2 p.m., BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 4 p.m., the Fed’s Daly at 4:35 p.m., Beaudry von BOC speaks at 5:10 p.m. and the governor himself speaks at 10:45 p.m.

Then at 1:30 p.m. traders can look forward to US producer prices, which in some ways could be seen as a warm-up for Wednesday’s inflation report. Strong producer prices combined with weak data from Germany could cause the dollar to gain ground.

But first, the German trade balance data is scheduled for 07:00 GMT. In October, exports declined in the first month of year 15 as supply chain bottlenecks continued to increase. They are expected to rebound by 0.5% in October, down from -1.5% in September. The German ZEW economic report will be published at 10:00 a.m. It’s been falling for five straight months and is expected to slide by a sixth. A weak ZEW report with weaker exports could cause trouble for the euro today, while a (pleasant) upside surprise could help the EUR / USD hold on to its early gains.

EUR / USD has just broken out of a bull flag on the hourly chart

EUR USD broke out of a bull flag pattern before today’s Open. A bullish trend is forming on the hourly chart and holding above the 20 and 50 bar eMAs. At the time of writing, the euro is trying to close above the monthly pivot. If it can make a solid close, bulls will have to break above the 1.16 handle to continue its trend. In this case our bias would be bullish above 1.1575 as we aim for a run towards the 1.1616 / Weekly R1 Pivot high.

Raw materials:

Silver The rally has stalled and retreated just below the weekly R1 pivot, and is currently showing the potential for a bull flag breakout on the hourly chart.

platinum Futures hold above trend support on the daily chart, with a swing low also corresponding to the 50- and 20-day eMAs. We suspect it will break higher (along with other metals) at some point, although inflation data and the US dollar’s reaction to this week’s inflation data will be crucial.

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