Will the bears push prices to $17,000?

Zoran Kole, a trader, went to X on October 12th. said Reasonable bids for Bitcoin are around $17,000 and $18,000. Although Kole did not provide any timelines for these levels to adjust, the prediction means that the coin could fall by 35% to around December 2022 if the prediction comes true.

BTC offers between $17,000 and $18,000| Source: Zora Kole on X

Will BTC fall to December 2022 levels?

The trader’s position appears contrarian and contradicts every bulls’ optimistic forecast. Bitcoin is in a precarious position and is particularly pessimistic about spot prices.

Bitcoin price on October 12th| Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

On the daily chart, we can see that the coin is down about 17% from its July highs and is trending lower at spot prices. From the looks of it, there could be another drawdown considering the coin has performed well in the last few hours. To illustrate, Bitcoin broke through the $27,000 support level on October 11 and is declining slightly at the spot price, confirming losses from earlier this week.

A top-down preview also shows that BTC bulls are under pressure and have failed to recoup losses from August 17th. During the flash crash in mid-August, the coin broke through critical support – now resistance around $28,300. Since then, Bitcoin has failed to break out above this level. There was an attempt on October 2nd, but the bears swooped in and wiped out all the gains.

Bitcoin is within the August 17th and 18th trading range while trading volume/participation remains relatively low. From the volume analysis, this is bearish. However, how quickly the coin can recover or fall even lower depends on how prices respond to the immediate support at around $25,000, which was registered in mid-September.

Bulls expect a Bitcoin and ETF halving to drive prices higher

The likelihood of Bitcoin falling into the $17,000 and $18,000 zones, confirming Kole’s prediction, will increase if sellers continue and break through the $25,000 mark. Bulls remain confident, pointing to fundamental factors primarily surrounding the 2024 Bitcoin halving, where the network will cut miners’ rewards by half from 6.25 BTC.

At the same time, proponents expect the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the country’s first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

In a recent X post, Blockchain Association Chief Policy Officer Jake Chervinsky said, expressed Optimism regarding SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. The policy expert said there are all signs that the agency is preparing for the derivative product.

This is particularly true given the recent changes ARK Investment Management has made to its prospectus. Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst, said ARK appeared to have changed its net asset value (NAV), on which the agency commented. ARK also clarifies that the assets of its trust are segregated and held by a qualified custodian.

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView

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