Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% on Wednesday, with reports of an analyst's opinion on the expected approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) later this month adding to a flood of highly leveraged futures that is the largest Depict cryptocurrency.
While professional analysts remain mixed on the market impact of the approval, expected on January 15, they are largely predicting a positive decision from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as is the crypto community, which is betting on it using prediction market Polymarket .
“ETF deniers are crypto flat earthers,” wrote one user on the platform, who appeared to have placed 2,800 “yes” bets on a positive decision.
Polymarket allows users to bet on topics such as sports, politics and pop culture. Prices represent the current probability of an event occurring and range from 0 to 99 cents – up to $1 if a bet is finished.
One popular market is the “Bitcoin ETF approved by January 15?” bet, which has attracted nearly $1 million in volume from hundreds of users.
“This market will resolve to 'Yes' if a spot Bitcoin ETF receives SEC approval by January 15, 2024, 11:59:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, this market will be resolved on 'No,'” the bet's terms and conditions state. “The primary source of resolution for this market will be information from the SEC, but consensus on credible reporting may also be used.”
Over 83% of bets are in favor, giving it a “90% chance” of approval from ETF analysts.
Comments from Polymarket users suggest that even those betting against the decision expect an ETF to be approved at some point, but not by the bet deadline.
Billions of directional Bitcoin transactions rely on the ETF decision, making it one of the most influential in recent years. Data shows that funding rates for bullish bets on Bitcoin hit a record high earlier this week, indicating an increased appetite to gain exposure to the asset regardless of the associated costs.
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