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Why Bitcoin is in a speculative bubble


  • Bitcoin blocks reached their maximum capacity.
  • Miner revenue went down while the hash rate went up.

Since hitting the $30,000 price threshold, the price of bitcoin has been increasing [BTC] was the subject of intense speculation. While many holders remain optimistic about the king coin’s future, there are growing concerns about its stability.

From blocks to bubbles

According to Messari, Bitcoin blocks were reaching their maximum capacity at press time, leading to congestion and the inability to process additional transactions.

This congestion has been seen in the past during Bitcoin market bubbles, where increased transaction demand overwhelmed the network.

Source: Messari

However, there has been a significant change in the composition of these blocks. In the past, blocks were primarily filled with transactional activity. But since the introduction of the NFT, the blocks have been filled with inscriptions.

The impact of this shift on the future price of BTC remains uncertain.

As Dune Analytics reports, the volume of ordinals traded across exchanges has declined in recent observations. This can have an impact on miners’ earnings.

Specifically, Blockchain.com data showed that miner revenue fell from $41.744 million to $26.178 million over the past month.

Source: Dune Analytics

In parallel, Bitcoin’s hash rate saw an upward trend during this period. The growing hash rate has a positive effect on the security and efficiency of the network.

However, this also leads to increased competition among miners, potentially impacting individual profitability and centralization concerns.

Source: Blockchain.com

What are bitcoin holders up to?

Bitcoin holder behavior showed interesting patterns. The number of holders on various exchanges increased, indicating an increasing interest in acquiring and owning BTC.

Glassnode has conducted a comprehensive analysis of the cumulative Bitcoin holdings on the three leading cryptocurrency exchanges over the past three years.

The results show significant growth in Bitcoin balances held by Binance and Bitfinex, with notable increases of 421,000 BTC and 250,000 BTC, respectively.

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In contrast, Coinbase saw its reserves drop, seeing a drop of 558,000 BTC.

Source: Glassnode

These changes in the behavior of holders and the distribution of BTC across exchanges may negatively impact the entire Bitcoin ecosystem.

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