Why bitcoin [BTC] may have one last dance to $12,800 before the critical moment

• Bitcoin risked a further drop in price due to the indications of the delta cap and relations to the trend of 2015 and 2018
• Price action showed that a breakout was nowhere near, even as investor confidence waned

The delta price of Bitcoin [BTC] could indicate the worst is far from over, believes Ghoddusifar, a CryptoQuant analyst. According to himBitcoin’s current delta price was $12,800.

Read Bitcoins [BTC] price prediction 2023-2024

The delta price acts as a possible price resulting from the difference between the realized cap and the average market cap. This conclusion also formed Ghoddusifar’s analysis, which implies that BTC could fall further as shown in the image below.

Source: CryptoQuant

Before the turning point, look back

The analyst not only focused on the recent BTC trend but also provided evidence of past events. He brought up the fact that the previous cycles of 2015 and 2018 were similar to the current circumstances.

This caused BTC price to drop before there was a “tipping point”. For Ghoddusifar, the current situation was downward trend everywhere, which made the price drop inevitable.

He said,

“Based on the amount of bitcoin falling from above in previous cycles as well as onchain oscillators, while showing that bitcoin is close to turning point, also confirms the possibility of further declines.”

Technically, there appeared to be some valid calls from the analyst. The Bollinger Bands on BTC’s daily chart showed that the coin’s volatility was extremely low.

Since BTC had failed to break the BB lower level, it was unlikely to see a strong bounce towards the upside. Additionally, the price had failed in its attempt to move out of the bands at $17,015. Thus the suggested upward trend was destroyed.

Source: TradingView

In addition, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) also pointed to a possible price decline. This was because the 20 EMA (green) could not overlap the 50 EMA (cyan). In this case, a bearish move was the likely option.

No risk, no reward for Bitcoin

The trend above, which suggested BTC falling, appeared to have extended towards investors. Corresponding glass nodethe bitcoin reserve risk was 0.00076.

This point was considered low and reflected that long-term holder confidence was not yet at its peak. In a case where reserve risk was high and price was low, this could signal a point accumulate,

However, this was not the case as it further indicated that the earlier drop below $16,000 was not the lowest BTC could reach.

Source: Glassnode

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