- Bitcoin price is up 8% so far after an explosive start to 2023.
- A flip of the 200-week SMA at $24,646 will pave the way for BTC to retest $30,000.
- The invalidation of the bullish thesis will occur if BTC flips the $15,443 support level.
Bitcoin price has started its climb after a steep bear market correction. This massive upleg started after a fresh start in 2023, but things could get interesting if BTC can turn a certain level into a support floor.
Also Read: Weekly Bitcoin Prediction: Assessing the Shift in BTC’s Narrative and Critical Levels to Watch
Bitcoin price is bursting with uptrend
Bitcoin price has lost 77% from its all-time high of $69,000. This downtrend was the result of investors’ book gains combined with major industry players collapsing into a feedback loop.
Each move further increased the pressure on industry participants, causing them to collapse and file for bankruptcy, adding even more pressure on Bitcoin price to fall lower.
Regardless, 2023 has got off to a good start as BTC is up around 36% so far, with an 8% overnight rally that has propelled bitcoin price above a critical hurdle of $21,383. This development now presents the bulls with a major blockade.
This resistance level is a confluence of the horizontal barrier at $23,384 and the 200-week SMA (simple moving average) at $24,645. The last time bitcoin price slipped below this SMA was in June 2022 and briefly in March 2020.
An interesting observation to make here is that Bitcoin has never stayed below this support level for any length of time in its 12-year history. As such, the bulls are likely to target that hurdle next.
A successful flip of this confluence, specifically the $24,645 into a support floor on a weekly timeframe, will pave the way for bitcoin price to retest the $30,000 hurdle.
BTC/USDT 1 week chart
As things improve for bitcoin price, this marks the first time in 12-year history that BTC has stayed below the 200-week SMA for more than two weeks. But since the 2022 bear market pushed the major crypto below that $24,645 level, this is a significant move from a macro perspective that investors need to be cautious about.
Although the bullish outlook seems immortal, a rejection at the 200-week SMA at $24,645 will be a crucial sign for bears. A second confirmation of the bearish outlook will come on the break of the $19,301 support level.
However, a weekly candle close below the $15,443 level will create a deeper low and invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, bitcoin price could fall as low as $11,387.
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