Recent Bitcoin Bull Run And Previous Run-Up Data Suggests A Softer Bear Market Is On The Point – Market Updates Bitcoin News

It has been six months, or roughly 180 days, since Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69,000 per unit on November 10, 2021, and Bitcoin’s USD value is down 45% since that time. Typically, the ensuing bear market after bitcoin spikes results in a large drop in value of 80% or more. However, since the recent price spike is similar to growth from April 2013 to November 2013, Bitcoin’s current bearish decline might not be as big this time.

An 80% drop from Bitcoin’s high would result in $13,800 per unit

Bitcoin markets have been in decline for the past six months after hitting the crypto-asset’s all-time high (ATH) last year at $69,000. While prices are bleak for many, people are wondering how long the down cycle will last.

Using today’s Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rates against the US Dollar shows that the leading crypto asset is down 45% so far. Typically, when BTC peaks, the price drops significantly during long-term downcycles, and after a few specific highs, BTC is down more than 80% from the high.

For example, BTC hit an all-time high of $259 per unit in April 2013, but then slipped to $50 per unit and lost about 82.6% in value. From the all-time high of $1,163 per unit in November 2013 to January 2016, the value of BTC slipped 86.9%. If Bitcoin’s USD value shed 80% from the recent high of $69,000 six months ago, the price would fall to a low of $13,800 per unit.

The softer bear market theory

However, there is a chance that the current bear cycle will be shorter and less influential this time. While BTC has seen at least three drops of 80% or more, it has seen many more drops of 32-51%. One reason Bitcoin’s bottom might not be that hard is that the crypto asset’s peak wasn’t that big. In fact, the last bitcoin bull run was longer and posted a much lower percentage gain than previous all-time highs. Crypto advocate and Youtuber ‘Colin Talks Crypto’ discussed the softer bear market theory on May 1st.

From the peak of August 17, 2012 ($16) to the peak of April 10, 2013 ($259), BTC is up 1,518.75% over the period. After this cycle, between the April 10, 2013 peak and the November 2013 peak, Bitcoin gained 349.03%. Then, from the November 2013 peak to the December 2017 peak, BTC surged 1,590.97%.

This time, however, the December 2017 peak to the November 2021 peak was only 250.85%. It was the lowest percentage gain of any major bull run in the crypto-asset’s lifetime. The lower bounce to the upside could result in a softer Bitcoin bear market that is much less drastic than an 80% or greater drop.

In addition to the smaller ATH, the lead time to the ATH 2021 was over 400 days. The Bitcoin bull run before (2017) only lasted 200 days, or about half that time. This means that while the brunt of the current bear market may be milder in some ways, it can last much longer than previous bear cycles.

tags in this story

$13,800, 2013 bull market, 2017 bull market, 80% downturn, bear market, bear run, bearish, bitcoin, bitcoin (BTC), lows, bull run, bull run, Colin talks crypto, crypto markets, longer bull market, spikes, shorter bear run, softer bear market theory, sharpen

What do you think of the possibility of a softer bear market that is less harsh than the previous 80% drops Bitcoin has seen in the past? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comment section below.

Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman is the news director at Bitcoin.com News and a Florida-based financial technology journalist. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for bitcoin, open source code and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 5,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about today’s emerging disruptive protocols.

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