- Bitcoin is expected to surge after the summer halving.
- Some anomalies suggest this time could be very different.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been in a strong upward trend since the end of October 2023. Although this was evident from the price action, it is unclear what could follow. AMBCrypto used a post from CryptoQuant Insights to understand what the dynamics of this cycle might look like.
A legitimate but uncomfortable question arose as to whether the Bitcoin bull market was different this time. It can be argued that it was different, but should investors be worried?
Has the current bull market existed since March 2023?
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
CryptoQuant user joaowedson noted that the “Whale Last Active 7–30 Days” indicator has been trending upward since March 2023. During the previous bull run, the increase in whale activity in mid-2020 was accompanied by a rapid Bitcoin rally.
A similar situation played out over the last 6 to 8 months when the indicator started to rise noticeably.
In addition to the price action, the whale indicator was another sign that the current uptrend was a long-term uptrend that started at $30,000.
Studying the behavior of miners
The halving event is on everyone's lips (after Bitcoin ETFs and their absurd inflows) and miners have been at the center of it. Their block rewards would drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which could force many of them to close shop if they cannot hold out until BTC prices rise.
An alternative is that there could be a drop in the network hash rate and a drop in difficulty – but this was extremely unlikely.
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant's miner reserve chart showed a decline since November 2023. In the last two cycles, a noticeable decline in BTC miner reserves has been accompanied by a bull run.
It was another metric that confirmed the assumption that Bitcoin had started trending upwards long before the halving. Bitcoin also reached a new high before the halving, which was not the case in previous cycles.
The importance of miners' Bitcoin transactions has also decreased with successive cycles. This trend is likely to continue as whales and institutional investors have become the dominant players.
In this case, the halving event could become a “sell the news” type event.
Read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2024-25
With whale activity and miner reserve metrics combined with price action supporting the idea of an existing bull run, the question arises: “When will the cycle end?”
Previous cycle highs reached 526 and 547 days after the halving. Could the duration of this run be shortened significantly since we have already been running it for 6-8 months? Only time can tell.
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