Bitcoin, BTC/USD, Ethereum, ETH/USD Outlook:
- Bitcoin continues to flirt with the psychological 30,000 mark.
- ETH/U.S. dollar lies at a key uptrendline support.
- What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch?
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BITCOIN: Renewed base?
On the daily charts, despite the recent weakness, BTC/USD has managed to hold a fairly strong support around 28500, which roughly coincides with the 89-day moving average and the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts.
BTC/USD 240 minute chart
Chart created by Manish Jaradi using TradingView
Importantly, the decline in realized volatility has not altered the “higher up, higher, down” sequence established late last year, suggesting that the interim trend is still up. Only a break below the June low of 24750 would trigger a reassessment of the overall bullish bias.
BTC/USD weekly chart
Chart created by Manish Jaradi using TradingView
On the upside, as highlighted in the previous update, BTC/USD has been weighed down by a key converging barrier at the April high around 31,000, which coincides with the 89-week moving average and the top of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly side Diagram. See “Could the Fed Trigger a Deeper Pullback in Bitcoin and Ethereum?” BTC/USD & ETH/USD Price Action,” published July 26. A break above the convergent barrier would be a strong signal that downside pressure is increasing from 2021 onwards. Such a move could open the door towards 40,000.
ETH/USD daily chart
Chart created by Manish Jaradi using TradingView
ETHEREUM: At trendline support
After surging sharply from late June, ETH/USD’s uptrend seems to have stalled. The recent minor drop has led ETH/USD to strong convergent support, including the 200-day moving average and the 89-day moving average. Importantly, it remains above major support at 1620 June low. The preliminary bias (from late 2022) remains up as long as this support is intact. On the other hand, the highs in May and July 2020-2030 present key obstacles.
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— Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com
— Contact and follow Jaradi on Twitter: @JaradiManish
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends affecting the global currency markets.
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