4-year cycle and Elliot Wave

The bitcoin landscape is no stranger to debate and predictions. Two dominant theories are currently in the foreground: the 4-year cycle and the Elliot impulse wave. However, a comprehensive analysis by respected crypto analyst CryptoCon suggests an intriguing intersection of these two theories.

The Dueling Bitcoin Price Prediction Theories

Two camps are at the heart of the debate. The first, the 4-year cycle proponents, believe in Bitcoin’s 4-year journey from the top to the bottom of the cycle, with a projected peak in 2025. The second camp, the Elliot Impulse Wave proponents, forecast either in a strong parabolic high this year or this year through early 2024.

CryptoCon’s thorough analysis, which includes TA, on-chain data, market psychology and more, offers a fresh perspective. “I think it might be possible to see the best of both worlds for any group of thinkers,” he posited.

A significant part of the 4-year cycle theory hinges on the impact of the halving on bitcoin price. “If the bitcoin supply falls about every four years, it should trigger a supply drop that leads to a price increase,” CryptoCon explained. However, he also offered a counterpoint, noting that the impact of miners’ supply production on Bitcoin’s price is diminishing, especially given the current market size.

Historical parallels, signals and indicators

CryptoCon drew attention to the 2011-2013 cycle, a period that did not follow traditional patterns. This cycle experienced both an early and a later climax. Could this be a precedent for the current cycle? “These two groups of people seem to be forgetting a certain cycle that seemed to defy all rules. 2011-2013,” he recalled.

Bitcoin Cycle 2011-2013 | Source: Twitter @CryptoCon_

Two compelling signals were the focus of his analysis: the DXY correlation coefficient and the Vigor signal. Historically, these were precursors to a price parabola. “The parabolic signal went off. “By definition, that was the beginning of every price parabola,” he emphasized, thereby emphasizing their reliability. Significant price movements have been observed in the past when Bitcoin had a low correlation to the US Dollar.

The Nov. 28 Cycle Theory, based on the date of Bitcoin’s first halving, has also been a consistent predictor of Bitcoin’s price movements for a decade. It divides bitcoin price action into four distinct phases: green, blue, red, and orange years (see table below), each with their own distinctive price behavior. “Based on its accuracy, there is no reason to believe it will fail this cycle. We tell ourselves that the true peak of the cycle will come at the end of 2025,” CryptoCon declared confidently.

November 28 cycle theory | Source: Twitter @CryptoCon_

CryptoCon’s trend pattern price model, which uses patterns in angular degrees of cycle highs and lows to predict future cycles, projects a price of $130,000 by the end of the cycle’s theoretical time frame on November 28th. He was quick to caution against over-reliance on fundamentals, stating, “While many would say there are no limits to pricing when it comes to fundamentals, I think that’s an absolutely ridiculous argument.”

Converging BTC Predictions

By synthesizing all this data, CryptoCon envisions a scenario where both the 4-year cycle and Elliot Impulse Wave theories could coexist harmoniously. He anticipates an early top around April 2024, potentially reaching $90,000, followed by a mid-cycle bear market. He predicts that the ultimate top could reach $130,000 by the end of 2025.

Possibilities of the Bitcoin Cycle | Source: Twitter @CryptoCon_

While CryptoCon’s analysis is detailed and comprehensive, it also brings with it a dose of humility. “It’s what I think is possible. Absolutely? Hardly,” he remarked. As the bitcoin community continues its heated discussions, one thing remains clear: only time will truly tell what course the bitcoin price will take.

At press time, BTC price is $29,466.

BTC price stays below $30,000, 4-hour chart | Source BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Selected image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

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