Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range since Thanksgiving, Nov. 24, as traders are unsure of the next direction. Typically, in a bear market, analysts tend to get hyper-bearish, forecasting targets that tend to scare investors away.
Bitcoin’s failure to stage a strong recovery has resulted in multiple bearish targets extending down to $6,000.
While anything is possible in a bear market, long-term traders might try to accumulate fundamentally strong coins in multiple tranches. Since a bottom is only confirmed after the fact, trying to time it is usually a futile endeavor.
Daily crypto market data view. Source: Coin360
In a bear market, not all coins bottom at the same time. Therefore, in addition to keeping an eye on the broader cryptocurrency market, traders should also keep a close eye on the coins of their choice.
The cryptocurrencies that lead the market out of the bear phase usually do well when the next bull market begins. Let’s look at the charts of cryptocurrencies trying to start an upward movement in the short-term.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been consolidating between $15,588 and $17,622 for the past few days. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The recovery rally could face strong resistance in the zone between the 20-day exponential moving average ($17,065) and $17,622. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the BTC/USDT pair could extend its stay within the range for some more time.
If buyers catapult the price above the overhead zone, it will indicate that the downtrend may end. The 50-day simple moving average ($18,600) may seem like a minor hurdle, but if it is breached, the upside could reach the psychological $20,000 level.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and falls below $15,588, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $13,554.
BTC/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart’s moving averages are flat and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating an equilibrium between supply and demand. This equilibrium could tip in bulls’ favor if they push the price above $17,000. The pair could then rally to overhead resistance at $17,622.
If the price falls below $16,000 instead, the pair could drop into the critical support zone between $15,588 and $15,476. A break below this zone could accelerate selling and start the next phase of the downtrend.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the overhead resistance at $0.09 on November 25, but the bears pulled the price back below the November 26 level. The buyers regrouped and pushed the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.10 on November 27th.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears might try again to halt the rally near $0.10 but if the bulls don’t allow the price to drop below $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair could gain momentum and move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels rising from $0.12. If this level is also scaled, the pair could resume its uptrend towards $0.16.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from current levels, it will indicate that the bears continue to view the rallies as selling opportunities. The pair could then drop to $0.09. If this support gives way, the 50-day SMA ($0.08) could come into question.
DOGE/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers have pushed the price above the range indicating the start of an upward movement. The strong rally pushed the RSI to heavily overbought levels, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near future.
If the price turns down from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $0.10 but recovers from the breakout level, it will indicate that sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then try to continue the uptrend. The range breakout target is $0.12.
This bullish view could be nullified in the short-term if the price turns down and re-enters the range. The pair could then drop to the 50-SMA.
LTC/USDT
Litecoin (LTC) breakout of the overhead resistance at $75 is the first hint of a possible trend reversal. The bears attempted to sink the price back below $75 and trap the aggressive bulls, but the buyers held out.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will attempt to propel the price above the overhead resistance at $84. If they succeed, it could signal the start of a new uptrend. The rising 20-day EMA ($67) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate that the path of least resistance is up. The LTC/USDT pair could then rally towards the $104 target.
Conversely, if the price turns down from $84, the pair could slide into the $73-$75 support zone. If this zone breaks, the pair could slide to the 20-day EMA. The bears need to drag the price below this support to trap the aggressive bulls.
If the price recovers from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make another attempt to push the pair above $84 and start the uptrend.
LTC/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the price breaking out and closing below the 20-EMA, but the bears failed to capitalize on this advantage. The bulls bought this decline and propelled the price back above the 20-EMA. Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting that the buyers have a slight advantage.
There is a minor resistance at $80 but if bulls push the price above this level the pair could rally to $84. The pair could then attempt a rally to $96. If bears want to invalidate this view in the near term, they need to drag the pair below $73.
Related: Bitcoin mining revenue is at its lowest in two years, hash rate is declining
LINK/USDT
Chainlink (LINK) has been hovering between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past few weeks. The strong rebound from the $5.50 support on Nov 21 suggests that bulls are aggressively buying the dips to this level.
LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($6.74) has started to emerge and the RSI has risen into positive territory, indicating a slight advantage for the bulls. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA ($7.15), the chances of a rally to $8.50 and $9.50 thereafter increase.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate bears are active at higher levels. The LINK/USDT pair could then drop back towards the $5.50 support and consolidate there for a few more days.
LINK/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
Strong recovery from $5.50 is approaching overhead resistance at $7.50. If the price turns down from this level and falls below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA. A break below this support could keep the pair between $5.50 and $7.50 for some time.
Another possibility is that the price will turn down from $7.50 but recover from the 20-EMA. The bulls will then try again to push the price above $7.50 and start the march north towards $8.50.
APE/USDT
ApeCoin (APE) has been consolidating in a wide range between $3 and $7.80 for the past few months. The bears attempted to sink the price below the range support but failed to sustain the lower levels. This indicates strong demand at lower levels.
APE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Continued buying pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($3.47) on Nov. 26, suggesting that the bulls are making a comeback. There is a minor resistance at the 50-day SMA ($4.06), but if bulls clear this roadblock, the APE/USDT pair could rally to the downtrend line.
If the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. If the pair recovers from this level, it will indicate that sentiment has shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could improve the prospects for a break above the downtrend line. The pair could then climb to $6.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the downtrend line and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could revisit the strong support at $3.
APE/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart’s moving averages are starting to turn up and the RSI has jumped into overbought territory, indicating that the bulls have a slight advantage. The bounce might face resistance at $4, but if the bulls don’t allow the price to break below the moving averages, the upside could reach the downtrend line.
This bullish view could be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-SMA. Such a move suggests that bears will continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to $3.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
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