- BTC gained +68% in Q1 2024, driven in part by US spot BTC ETF inflows.
- Krueger estimates that BTC will reach $195,000 by the end of 2024 due to inflows.
Bitcoin [BTC] posted an impressive performance in the first quarter of 2024 thanks to inflows from the new US spot BTC ETFs (exchange traded funds).
Digital gold gained over 68% in the first quarter, rising from $38.5K to $73.7K. During the same period, total inflows from spot ETFs reached $12 billion and total assets exceeded $59 billion. Overall, it increased BTC's market cap to over $1 trillion.
Bitcoin Price Drivers: Halving vs. ETF Flows
Fred Krueger, a Bitcoin maximalist and serial investor, estimated that BTC could reach $195,000 by the end of 2024 based on historical data.
Krueger posted his analysis and assumptions on X (formerly Twitter) and highlighted the 2024 cycle. specification The;
“We are at $70,000 and a market cap of $1.4 trillion.
We are likely to see another $50 billion in inflows this year (ETFs plus exchanges).
At a multiplier of 50, that's $2.5 trillion.
This brings us to a market cap of $3.9 trillion, or $195,000 BTC.
I think that's the base case for this year. It could be higher.”
Kruger emphasized that the 2024 bull market cycle was driven primarily by ETF inflows from traditional finance (TradFi).
“But the real story is Bitcoin ETFs. TradFi meets Bitcoin.”
However, he noted that BTC could rise to $500,000 in two years before a bad crash occurs.
Krueger did not explicitly state what would cause the crash if BTC reached $500,000. However, he believed that the halving event would reduce the price Price collapse but not necessarily driving a massive rally.
“I think the halving paves the way for the rally as it reduces the amount spent in a 4x rally.”
In other words, the BTC maximalist sees ETF flows as a crucial price driver compared to the supply shock caused by the halving event.
At press time, Bitcoin slipped below $70,000 and retested the $68,000 area before reclaiming $69,000.
Rekt Capital, a crypto market analyst, claims The move confirms a breakout after BTC posted a weekly candlestick close of $71.2K, above the previous cycle's all-time high of $69K.
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