- Most ETFs' net inflows were higher than Grayscale's BTC outflow.
- Technical indicators and on-chain metrics point to a Bitcoin rally in a few months.
For the first time since Bitcoin [BTC] When the ETFs went live, the net balance of BlackRock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC), Bitwise (BITB) and Franklin Templeton (EZBC) was higher than Grayscale's payout. AMBCrypto collected the data after examining the inflows and outflows of the ETFs.
For most of the time, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) dominated volumes. But not all of these volumes were inflows.
In recent weeks, Grayscale has been offloading GBTC in large numbers. These sell-offs came at the expense of the Bitcoin price, which once collapsed to $39,000 during the said period.
IBIT and FBTC are now responsible
But as the decline slows, other ETFs are gaining ground. According to AMBCrypto's query on Santiment, GBTC's flow was -$189.43 million at press time. This was the lowest flow since January 12th.
In terms of volume, Grayscale only had $199.24 million. This means that BlackRock's IBIT in Bitcoin trading was significantly higher.
Source: Santiment
We also evaluated the volume of FBTC and BITB. At press time, on-chain data shows that Fidelity’s FBTC has a higher Bitcoin trading volume than Grayscale at $893.16 million. However, Bitwise's BITB was lower at $64.59 million.
Additionally, GBTC’s recent decline could mean a reversal for Bitcoin. If the company continues to slow its outflows, we could see a rise in BTC price. A few weeks ago, BTC jumped to $49,000 due to SEC ETF approval.
However, the event later proved disastrous for the coin price as it plummeted. But the last 24 hours have brought something of a respite to Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, the price of BTC was $43,073, up 2.08%. Therefore, there is a possibility that the price will be higher than before.
Is the change a win for Bitcoin?
If Grayscale finally stops selling, Bitcoin could rise back to $49,000. However, this forecast would require more than lower outflows and more ETF buy orders. Another possible catalyst that could drive up the price of Bitcoin could be competition between these companies.
Typically, each of these companies is expected to want higher volume than the others.
Therefore, demand for Bitcoin could increase as the battle for market share intensifies. At the same time, it is also important to examine the potential of BTC from a technical perspective.
At press time, Bitcoin had not become extremely volatile, as shown by the Bollinger Bands (BB). This means that the coin may continue to trade within a small margin. In an extremely pessimistic scenario, BTC could fall to $41,726. But if the momentum is bullish, the coin could reach $44,000.
The Aroon indicator also showed that the dominance of sellers (Aroon Down-blue) was waning, while buyers (Aroon Up-orange) were slowly gaining control. If this continues, BTC's upward trend could continue in the long term.
Source: Santiment
However, in the short term, the potential rise to $49,000 may not be immediate. This was due to the clues shown by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). At press time, the CMF was -0.02.
The negative value of the CMF signals higher distribution than accumulation. If the CMF eventually turns positive, Bitcoin could see a significant uptrend.
Big players have bought the “blood”.
Another metric that AMBCrypto checked when assessing Bitcoin price potential was the Accumulation Trend Score. The Accumulation Trend Score reflects the relative size of companies actively accumulating coins on-chain as measured by their BTC holdings.
If the Accumulation Trend Score is closer to 1, it suggests that larger units are accumulating overall. However, an Accumulation Trend Score closer to zero indicates that companies are distributing.
Source: Glassnode
How much is 1,10,100 BTC worth today?
At the time of this writing, Glassnode’s data showed that the Accumulation Trend Score was exactly 1. This value means that many large companies aggressively bought the Bitcoin decline.
If accumulation continues to increase, the price of BTC could rise significantly in a few months.
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