Bitcoin (BTC) volatility eased until October 6th as preparations for a BTC price decline returned.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin keeps liquidations limited due to the long and short “squeeze”.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView covered a flatter 24 hours for BTC/USD after it failed to retest $28,000.
After remaining in a tight range of about 1.5% down, the largest cryptocurrency moved back closer to $28,000 ahead of the Wall Street open, but sparked fresh concerns among market participants about possible losses.
$BTC / $USD – Update
I’m just staying in my long position at $26,000 for now, but will close it and go short if we lose the $27,200 support below us. Alarms are set and I’m on standby pic.twitter.com/mcS9Zcp5zN
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) October 6, 2023
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades observed an ongoing battle between two key moving averages (MAs) on one-day time frames.
“Whether the daily 200MA (purple) or daily 200EMA (blue) gives way first will likely determine the trend for the rest of October, if I had to guess,” he wrote in an Oct. 4 X post alongside a chart.
“$27,000 and $28,000. The fight goes on.”
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Daan Crypto Trades then reported increasing open interest (OI) on exchanges, which could lead to pressure on short positions and subsequently on long positions.
“This was usually a short squeeze (upward) into a long squeeze (back down). We saw that again yesterday. It is good to keep an eye on this region,” he suggested.
#Bitcoin Open Interest hit the 8.7-9.1 billion range again, where we have seen a lot of shortages recently.
This was usually a short squeeze (upward) into a long squeeze (back down).
We saw that again yesterday.
It’s good to keep an eye on this region. pic.twitter.com/yojcBHSGzk
— Dan Crypto Trades (@DanCrypto) October 6, 2023
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed negligible liquidations in both long and short BTC positions through October 6th.
BTC liquidation chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Lack of Lower BTC Price Levels “Surprise”
Monitoring resource Material Indicators turned its attention to whale trading behavior throughout the week.
Related: Bitcoin Bull Market Waits as US Faces ‘Bear Steepener’ – Arthur Hayes
When the whales were divided into volume-based cohorts, it was found that different “classes” of whales made contradictory movements. Orders valued between $100,000 and $1 million – the Material Indicators class is often said to be the main driver of spot price action – have increased exposure but failed to spark a broader uptrend.
“This week Lila bought aggressively and sold the local top. Then, in the last seven days, they began purchasing market orders on @binance worth NET +$13.8 million in market orders,” it said.
The data also showed that other whales made nearly $60 million in net sales during the same period.
“We could speculate whether this is part of the FTX liquidation or not,” Material Indicators added, referring to the possible liquidation of assets of the defunct exchange FTX.
“It doesn’t matter who it is, but if there is a surprise, it’s not because the price hasn’t gone up, but because it hasn’t gone down.”
BTC/USD order book data for Binance with whale activity. Source: Material Indicators/X
As for exchange-based setups, popular trading account Exitpump has also spied a possible liquidity grab below $27,400.
“Price always likes to make multiple kisses into the resistance block that forms a top,” summarized part of a recent analysis.
$BTC Possible retracement to 28,000. Good supply liquidity below 27.4k in Binance spot order book.
Price always likes to place multiple kisses on the resistance block that forms a peak. pic.twitter.com/ZvUVEeqULY
– Exitpump (@exitpumpBTC) October 5, 2023
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision.
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