The analysis begins on a bearish note, with Bitcoin starting the week with a rapid decline of 1% at press time as momentum fades. After the days of consolidation, BTC price failed to receive a positive influence from the S&P 500 and reached its all-time high in two years.
As the total crypto market cap stands at $1.573 trillion and tests the 50-day EMA, Bitcoin is showing strong bearish signals.
However, although sentiment is weakening, the Bitcoin price forecast based on a halving and possible interest rate cuts is optimistic.
Bitcoin price warns of a trendline break with a 6% downtrend
After a consolidating end to the downtrend last week, sellers are poised for highly active moves this week. Down 1.08% at press time, BTC price is testing the crucial support zone at the $41,000 level.
Source – Tradingview
Source – TradingviewWith buyers having already lost the 50-day EMA and the 23.60% Fibonacci level of the recent upswing, sellers are dominating the short-term trend. Furthermore, the increasing intensity could soon lead to a larger decline in BTC price, causing a dip in the higher low formation.
The ongoing battle for the upcoming trend depends on the active support trend line. The marked trend line remains a crucial reversal point for BTC price in confluence with the support zone.
Options data points to a crucial moment
Since open interest across all exchanges for Bitcoin is $14.29 billion, Coinglass shows that calls account for 208,692.47 BTC and puts account for 95,852.52 BTC. This gives a put-call ratio of less than 1, suggesting that traders are interested in more call options.
However, the volumes of the traded contracts are not included in the PCR quota. Nevertheless, according to Coinglass, volumes are also bullish, with 54.42% of the volume being calls.
The lack of clarity about expiry dates calls into question the credibility of the above metrics and warns of an opposite trend. Additionally, the PCR ratio can be a reversal sign as the market may be signaling an overbought phase.
BTC price is trading at $41,003 at press time with an intraday candle suggesting a breakout rally.
MACD indicator: After the recent bearish crossover, the MACD and signal lines are crossing below the midline. Therefore, the momentum indicator warns of a bearish trend in Bitcoin.
Will BTC HODL Price The Fort at $40,000?
As the sentiment crisis deepens, the crucial support zone at $41,000 is beginning to buckle. However, the breakdown will be the clear sell signal for side traders. In such a case, a crash in BTC price is expected to reach the 38.20% Fibonacci level at $38,642.
Conversely, a bullish reversal could result in a return to overhead resistance at $46,758.
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