Following the launch of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the value of the first cryptocurrency has fallen after briefly hitting $49,000 again.
Attention has now shifted to the short-term price action of Bitcoin (BTC), with the cryptocurrency at risk of losing crucial support at $40,000. In fact, there has been widespread speculation that Bitcoin could fall further after the asset fell below $41,000 on January 20.
Looking at Bitcoin price prediction, crypto trading expert FieryTrading outlined the possible outlook for the Bitcoin post-ETF hype in a January 20 TradingView post.
In its analysis, FieryTrading found a connection between bear market lows and Bitcoin price during halving events.
Analyzing historical data, he highlighted a speculative pattern that could significantly increase Bitcoin's value and drew parallels to the second and third halving events.
Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView
For example, during the second halving, the expert pointed to a price increase of 300% from the low, while in the third halving period it was 200% from the low.
He suggested that a move towards $31,000 is plausible for Bitcoin based on historical developments.
“So my assumption would be that by the fourth halving, the next one, the price would be 100% away from the low of $15,500, so around $31,000. Since BTC reversed after the ETF launch, a move towards $31,000 is not that far-fetched as it acted as very important resistance for most of 2023 and therefore acted as a magnet,” he said.
Bitcoin catalyst
As the ETF fails to meet expectations regarding Bitcoin price action, attention has shifted to other catalysts, particularly the upcoming halving scheduled for April. In this case, there is an expectation that the ETF will be complemented by the halving.
For example, a previous Finbold report suggested that SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that Bitcoin could trade at $170,000 by 2025, attributing the rise to a combination of ETF and halving event.
Despite Bitcoin's reaction to the ETF, the product's overall performance was remarkable, attracting significant trading volume within a few days.
Bitcoin price analysis
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $41,743, posting daily losses of less than 1% and a weekly decline of over 2%.
Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold
Elsewhere, Bitcoin technical analysis reveals bearish sentiments: A summary of one-day indicators shows a “neutral” rating at 7, moving averages signal a “sell” sentiment at 9, and oscillators hold a “buy” sentiment at 4.
Bitcoin technical analysis. Source: TradingView
Overall, investors are closely watching whether Bitcoin can continue to post gains above the $40,000 support zone.
Disclaimer: The content of this website should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When you invest, your capital is at risk.
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