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AZ Alkmaar beat Anderlecht and reached the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League
West Ham’s push for a first European final in 47 years soon meets Mr Moneyball himself.
AZ Alkmaar meet the Hammers in the first leg of the Europa Conference League semi-finals on Thursday. And according to Billy Beane, the Netherlands team is “one of the best untold stories in sport”.
Beane – the real inspiration for Brad Pitt’s character in Moneyball – should know. He has a connection with AZ that goes back almost a decade.
He pioneered the use of statistical data to change the fortunes of the major league baseball team Oakland Athletics, and his methods have since been applied to other teams in baseball and football.
In 2020, he bought a 5% stake in AZ after previously serving as an advisor to AZ for five years.
And earlier this year he gave a fascinating insight into his methods and his thoughts on AZ Alkmaar in a speech to the European Clubs’ Association General Assembly in Budapest.
“I am proud to be associated with them”
Beane’s connection to AZ comes through Robert Eenhoorn, a Dutchman who played four seasons in Major League Baseball. The pair became friends through the baseball scene and when Eenhoorn was appointed general manager of AZ in 2014 he asked Beane for help.
“I’m proud to be associated with them,” Beane said.
“The process and the consistency they’ve had is one of the best untold stories in sport. I’m biased but it’s unbelievable. It’s not just a great football story, it’s a great business story.”
AZ is used to operating both domestically and in Europe with a smaller budget and infrastructure than its competitors.
Take Thursday’s opponents as an example. In the summer of 2021, West Ham’s total revenue was £192.1m compared to AZ’s £19m (€21.08m). West Ham’s payroll costs came in at £128.45m compared to AZ’s £14.13m (€16.2m). London Stadium has a capacity of 62,500 compared to AZ’s AFAS Stadium which holds 19,500.
Domestically, eight Dutch clubs have a larger field than AZ, dwarfed by Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord.
But with three games left in the domestic season, AZ are well positioned to secure fifth place in the top four of the Eredivisie in six seasons. They need four points to guarantee European football again.
For Beane, it shows that the data analysis methods he used in baseball were transferrable to other sports – which was proven when he answered Eenhoorn’s call.
“The first thing Robert did was stop losing money,” he said. “Unfortunately the first year is painful because you sell your best players to make up for the poor decisions of the people who were there before you.”
“With what little money he had, he bought two players from the second division who were completely data-driven. One was Vincent Janssen, the other was Alireza Jahanbakhsh.”
The pair were shopped for less than £1million. Janssen was later sold to Tottenham and Jahanbakhsh to Brighton for a combined £33m.
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Billy Beane Interview
“The role of Boy Scouts is being redefined”
Beane first put his Moneyball concept into practice with the Oakland Athletics baseball team.
In football, expected goals have become a common assessment of a team’s performance, alongside completed passes in the final period and set pieces on and off target.
But Beane recognizes that data isn’t everything. He rejects the notion that this will force traditional scouting out of the game.
“If you think of a scout in any sport, you give him an impossible job,” he said.
“We will redefine them. Decision-making in business is based solely on information. There is information I can’t get from data. I can’t figure out what kind of teammate he is. I can’t find her.” Whether he stays out all night, what kind of parents he has, what kind of student he was.
“I want scouts to give me information I can’t get. You can build that into your model.”
Beane is hoping for breakthroughs at Brighton and Brentford
Brighton and Brentford are two examples of Premier League clubs that have added a strong data element to their recruitment policies and are capitalizing on this by delivering performances well above their perceived standing in the game.
However, Beane believes one of those clubs needs to shake up the elite to really understand what data analysis can do across the game.
“The challenge isn’t getting the data, it’s executing it,” he said.
“Using the data, you may find a 5’7″ male who is underrated for his height. You can see he’s not six feet tall and your eyes stop at you no matter what the data says.”
“Brentford wins nothing. But think about where they’ve been, where they are now, and what they’re dealing with. Normally people talk about clubs having a great youth programme. They don’t even have a youth program.”
“When one of these clubs starts to get into the top four, five, six, people are going to change very quickly.”
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