NBA picks, best bets for Raptors-Bulls and Pelicans-Thunder: Take the Under in the East; Pelicans in the west

SATISFACTION

With the 2022-23 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily selections for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game leading up to the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Latest Odds:

Under 214.5

Everything about this game calls for defense. Toronto is well acquainted with DeMar DeRozan’s playoff woes. For his career, his field goal percentage drops from 46.8% in the regular season to 41.8% in the playoffs. That becomes particularly problematic against Toronto, as the Raptors can throw more fullbacks at him than any other team in the playoff field. DeRozan averaged just 14 points per game against the Raptors this season.

But Toronto’s offense isn’t much better. The Raptors rank 25th in the NBA in half-court points per game, according to Cleaning the Glass. Your offense is based on turnovers and transition. Those points aren’t as readily available in the postseason, and the Bulls are the seventh-least earners per game in the NBA. Combine that with Chicago’s 24th offensive ranking for the season and the fact that the Bulls (first) and Raptors (sixth) are both among the NBA’s best defenses as of the close, and you have a game that should score very few points. The choice: Under 214.5

Latest Odds:

New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

The Thunder did everything in their power to fall out of the play-in race at the track. They played a 12-man rotation in key games. They lost to the Hornets and Pacers and missed most of their best players. They almost lost a game against the Utah reserves that would have put the Mavericks in control of their own destiny for the No. 10. In short, Oklahoma City seems to have run out of gas.

The opposite could be said of the pelicans. They are 10-5 in their last 15 games and have outperformed their opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions over that span. Injuries nearly left them dead earlier in the season, but right now Brandon Ingram is playing one of the best basketballs of his career. He averaged 28.6 points and 8.1 assists per game to lead the Pelicans to the play-in round.

But if there’s any real advantage here, it’s on the boards. The Thunder rank 28th in the NBA in defensive rebounding. The Pelicans rank ninth in the NBA in offensive rebounding. Jonas Valanciunas is a great offensive rebounder under normal circumstances. Against a team with no real center in their rotation? He will give the Pelicans enough second chance points to comfortably win this game. The choice: Pelicans -5.5