Last week, as a Notre Dame analyst for the first time this season, I was completely unsure how to handicap one of the Fighting Irish’s games. I lowered my Notre Dame handicap record to 6-2.
Notre Dame entered last week’s game in the midst of one of college football’s most brutal stretches. They played Ohio State, then traveled to Durham to face a really good Duke team, then played a road game against ACC Championship hopeful Louisville and finally hosted Pac-12 runner-up USC. And all of this without a week off to get her team up to speed mentally and physically. Brutally
USC at Notre Dame | Spread: Notre Dame -2.5 | Total: 60.5
As mentioned, Notre Dame is coming off a brutal string of games. Scheduling alone is enough to make any team quit. However, these games were all hard-fought battles, basically down to the last move.
It doesn’t matter how talented the team is; There is an expectation that with such tight scheduling, injuries and fatigue will occur. They looked tired against Louisville. Their front seven, who had had their way with teams all season, didn’t get nearly enough pressure. And their potent offensive line couldn’t get enough pressure to run for more than 60 yards on the ground.
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USC is not without its flaws this season. They have arguably the best offense in all of college football, led by the best player in football. Led by Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, they rank second in EPA offense and first in scoring offense this season.
However, the problem over the last two seasons has been their defense. So far this season, they are 61st in defensive success rate. The biggest problem they faced was allowing teams to score seemingly at will. Being a national championship contender and ranking 88th in net points per offense on defense isn’t going to get the job done.
When betting on this game, it almost feels irresponsible to want to score with Notre Dame. Your team has been through it. Not only are they in a difficult scheduling situation, but they also haven’t kept up on offense.
Sure, that could all change against this terrible USC defense. However, this game is a coin toss. I don’t think Notre Dame is a 1-point favorite over USC in this neutral-field situation.
This USC team has only suffered two losses in the last season and a half. One for an outstanding Utah team. One on the road, a place where Utah never loses. The other was in the Pac-12 Championship, where Williams was injured.
To beat this Trojans team you need perfection. I don’t think they have that level of perfection in the state Notre Dame is in right now.
We could see the bad weather factor in the result, which actually resulted in the game being less high-scoring. Therefore, the total fell from 62.5 to 60.5. I don’t think the wind gusts will be strong enough to allow a full dogfight on the ground.
So I have confidence in Williams and this offense. Give me USC ML +125 vs. Notre Dame.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Bet: USC ML (+125)
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