Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri will use this space to deliver his keys to victory each week of the 2023 NFL season.
Result 1: Zay Flowers is a sneaky WR stud in Week 6
He scored more than 10 goals in three of his first five career games. Flowers is the clear WR1 for Lamar Jackson. His 29% target share ranks 12th among all WRs.
Flowers’ role in the offense has improved in recent weeks. At the beginning he was mainly used in the short areas of the pitch. This results in easier catches but fewer benefits. But over the last two weeks, he accounted for 40% of Baltimore’s air yards and his average target distance was 15.8 yards downfield.
This will lead to big plays in this offense. The good news is that Flowers has yet to score a touchdown this season and has yet to reach the 78-yard mark. This gives you the opportunity to buy cheaply from him.
Result 2: The best RB spot of the week belongs to Kyren Williams
Last week against the Eagles, Kyren was at the shaky spot of the week, scoring just 6.7 points on 15 touches. But a week later he finds himself in the best spot of the week.
The Rams are seven-point home favorites against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 25th against the run this season and has allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs. This comes right into Williams’ game – he ranks third in RB targets and first in RB routes this season.
The starting running back for a team that is one of the touchdown favorites this season has averaged 15.2 fantasy points.
Result 3: Breece Hall is in the toughest spot of the week
Hall had a massive 194-yard game in which he saw 25 touches. He managed a season-high 76% of rush attempts and was back to his old Breece Hall form. He ranks second in the NFL this season with an average of 7.2 yards per touch.
But in Week 6, he finds himself in a tough spot. He will face the Eagles’ No. 1 defensive line (which will be missing rookie Jalen Carter). This unit held Kyren Williams to just 57 scoreless yards on 15 touches last week. Despite losing key pieces this offseason, the Eagles’ defense still ranks second when it comes to stopping the run.
The Jets are seven point underdogs in this game. This will lead to fewer rushing attempts for Hall. It should also lead to more usage of Michael Carter. Carter ran 22% more routes than Hall last week and played 100% of the two-minute offensive snaps. Sentiment expectations for Hall in Week 6.
We now have two weeks of data that suggests Pacheco is the primary RB in Kansas City. He has played 60% of snaps and completed 70% of rush attempts in the last two games. Pacheco averaged 20 chances during that time, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire only had three.
The only downside is that Pacheco still doesn’t see any passing play. He runs 35-40% of the routes as usual, while Jerick McKinnon handles the two-minute offensive work.
We’re basically taking on the role of Pacheco’s Brian Robinson or Dameon Pierce, but in a much better offense that will reach the red zone more often. Over the next two weeks, he will once again face the Broncos defense and the Chargers’ bottom-five run defense.
Finding 5: James Cook is trending downwards
His use affected the last two games. In Week 4, Latavius Murray ran more routes and scored more targets than Cook. Then Cook saw a season-low nine chances in Week 5. Despite Buffalo trailing most of the game, Cook only saw 38% of the third-down snaps.
Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have been more involved in the last two games. They combined for 47% of the snaps during that time.
Look to trade Cook after their Week 6 matchup with the Giants. Target Kyren Williams or Aaron Jones in trades.
Result 6: The Pick Up and Play of the week is Gerald Everett
He has had his farewell week and is in a favorable situation. Two things are in Everett’s favor: Mike Williams is out for the season and Donald Parham Jr. is injured and leaning toward missing Week 6.
Everett has played just 46% of the snaps in three games in which Parham was healthy. But when Parham departed at the start of Week 4, Everett was running a season-high 59% of routes and was more involved in the red zone.
Everett ranks 12th in TE efficiency this season despite only running 71 routes. If he maintains this efficiency over more routes, he will be a top-12 TEs in this offense. As a reminder, Everett was a top-10 TEs in this offense last season and now Mike Williams is out for the season.
Takeaway 7: The use of Jameson Williams is something to keep an eye on
It was a rough start to the season for Jameson Williams in Week 5. He dropped his first target and then caught a screen pass for -3 yards on his second target. This is poor production for Jameson, but his underlying effort was actually encouraging. Jameson ran 50% of the Lions routes in his season debut; This was third best among Lions receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown missed Week 5 and Kalif Raymond was his immediate replacement. That means Williams is competing with Marvin Jones for a starting role. Jameson ran just two fewer routes than Jones in Week 5.
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Through five games, the Lions have the No. 1 ranked passing attack and could take advantage of Williams’ downfield speed. Goff ranks second in deep-ball accuracy, which should lead to some big plays for Jameson. Add him ahead of his Week 6 matchup against a bottom-10 Bucs secondary.
Finding 8: The Colts secondary is the matchup to exploit
The Colts secondary ranks 25th in coverage this season. They play a strong zone defense that allows opposing wide receivers easy receptions and yards after the catch.
We saw their secondary battle every week. Opposing WR1s averaged 23.6 points per game against the Colts. That includes a 140-yard performance from DeAndre Hopkins last week.
But it’s not just WR1s who have benefited. We saw strong passing offenses produce multiple WRs in the same game against Indy. In Week 1, Zay Jones scored 14 points and in Week 2, Tank Dell scored 16.7 points.
This week the Jaguars face the Colts for the second time this year. It’s unclear if Zay Jones will play. In four games in which Jones was sidelined or limited, Christian Kirk scored 10 goals per game. Start with your Jaguars this week and target this secondary all season long.
He has scored 14 or more points in four straight games. Brown ranks 14th in the league with 42 targets, connecting on a strong 25% of his routes. Arizona didn’t trail much in the first three games of the season and was therefore able to run more in the second half. This resulted in Marquise scoring 7.3 goals per game.
But in the last two games, Arizona often trailed and Marquise scored 10 goals in each game. With James Conner injured, the running game should become less efficient and the emphasis should be even more on the passing attack.
This eighth-round fantasy pick is currently producing as a top-15 WR and the volume isn’t going to slow down any time soon. Expect more production this week against the Rams’ 31st-ranked defense.
Score 10: Quentin Johnston is the newbie to add after the bye week
Many teams use their bye week to adjust their game plans and personnel deployment. This often leads to expanded roles for key newcomers. We’ve seen this in recent seasons with players like Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco.
One player to keep an eye on for this trend in Week 6 is Quentin Johnston. Johnston is the Chargers’ first-round receiver out of TCU. His best season was last year when he rushed for 1,069 yards and finished in the top 10 in broken tackle rate.
Without Mike Williams, Johnston saw a dramatic uptick in his role in Week 4. He played a season-high 69% of the routes and scored three goals. Expect the Chargers to increase the role of their first-round rookie in Week 6. Johnston has favorable matchups against the Bears and Chiefs in the next few weeks. If he is available in your league, add him.
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