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The 2022-23 Premier League season is just a week away, giving us another opportunity to analyze some futures markets.
Today’s topic — the awarding of the Golden Boot. This award is given to the players who lead the English top flight in terms of goals and is perhaps the most popular to bet on from a players perspective.
The favorite for this year’s crown is Manchester City’s new signing Erling Haaland (+225), while Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (+450) is second on the odds board. Other notable players include Tottenham’s Harry Kane (+550) and Heung-Min Son (+1200) and Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo (+1000).
While the award is generally claimed by the front runners, I choose to look further down the board to try and find longshots with value. In general, bettors choosing to play this market should look for players who are both a) regular starters and b) penalty takers for their team.
With that in mind, here are my top picks for the 2022-23 EPL Golden Boot. All odds are provided courtesy of BetMGM and are conflicting at the time of writing.
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Best Bet #1: Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United) (+4000)
I’ll be honest – that’s more of a hunch from Bowen, but 40/1 is still way too high a price.
Last season, Bowen led the Hammers with 11 goals, a number that matched his underlying xG data (11.1) exactly. Despite this, the England international was involved in a total of 22 goals last season, accounting for almost 35 per cent of West Ham’s entire season.
With the resignation of Mark Noble, manager David Moyes opens a penalty shootout. Although striker Michail Antonio is also a candidate for the role, following the summer signing of Gianluca Scamacca I question Antonio’s role in the squad.
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And since joining West Ham ahead of the 2019/20 season, Bowen has improved his underlying metrics with each subsequent season. For reference, in the 2020-21 season, Bowen averaged 0.22 expected goals without penalties per 90 minutes. Last season, that number rose to 0.34 xG/90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
Assuming Bowen improves his xG/90 rate by the same percentage (roughly 54 percent), he’ll get around 0.53 xG/90 this season and – based on that rate – he would be around 18.55 score goals.
He’ll need a few penalties from there to have a shot at the golden boot, but I’m ready to shoot at 40/1.
Bukayo SakaGetty Images
Best Bet #2: Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) (+8000)
Much like Bowen at West Ham, there is an unknown at Arsenal where the player will do the penalty work.
In her first full season without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette, Saka feels like a good candidate to take over from the spot. He also attempted two penalties for manager Mikel Arteta last season, scoring in both.
Although new signing Gabriel Jesus is also a candidate for the role, I’m assuming Arteta will go with a more experienced Saka. Beyond that, however, there are reasons to support Saka at a high cost.
Despite Arsenal arriving fully loaded in attacking midfield this season, Saka featured regularly in Arteta’s starting XI last season. Last season, he played in all 38 games for the Gunners and started 36 of those games.
He also led the team with 11 goals and 18 goal contributions. Also, despite being a relatively small sample, Saka has improved all of his Expected Goals, Expected Assists and xG + xA year after year. A season earlier he registered 0.24 xG/90 before hitting 0.30 xG/90 last year, again according to fbref.com.
He will need a much bigger leap to contend for this year’s Golden Boot – hence the sizeable prize with the England international – but I believe that prize has decent value.
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