Making money on the stock market was not only difficult, but almost impossible.
In today’s Fat Tail Daily Closing Bell video, I show you the Commitment of Traders (COT) data in various futures markets. When markets move sharply, it can be helpful to know that leveraged funds are covering short positions or traders have added to long positions. Like everything else, it’s not a miracle cure, but it helps to solidify the opinion…
I don’t know about you, but I for one am counting down the days until the end of 2023.
It was a struggle for everyone.
I have friends with monthly mortgage payments who are under so much pressure that they could default.
When I go to Woolies for a few things I can’t believe how much it costs. $3 for a red pepper…are you kidding me?
Making money on the stock market was not only difficult, but almost impossible.
If you made money trading this year, my hat is off to you. My overall goal was to keep my head down as much as possible to avoid being shot off.
While the largest stocks in the market saw support, the smaller end faced relentless selling pressure. Uranium has been strong and I’m glad I recruited members of my long uranium trading team at the right time.
But other than that, it was an uphill battle every step of the way.
So all I can say is let’s get rid of 2023 and hope that next year doesn’t look like this.
Due to the current dead markets, I thought it would be useful in today’s Closing Bell video to show you the Commitment of Traders (COT) data in various futures markets.
Charts of the data can be found here.
The data is released on a Friday and shows the market positioning of various participants on the Tuesday before the data release.
When markets move sharply, it can be helpful to know that leveraged funds are covering short positions or traders have added to long positions.
Like anything else, it’s not a miracle cure, but it does help solidify one’s opinion.
What’s interesting about the data surrounding the strong rally we’ve seen in the S&P 500 over the past few weeks is that the big players haven’t adjusted their positioning that much.
Asset managers have not significantly increased their long positions, leveraged funds have increased their short positions, and traders remain quite short and have not covered these positions.
So it looks like many of the big players don’t believe the hype.
Seven stocks in the S&P 500 account for most of the rally we’ve seen, so market breadth isn’t particularly wide.
Just like in Australia, it’s not pretty when you look beneath the surface.
The performance of bonds in the coming months will determine the fate of stocks, so in today’s video I also look at the COT data for the 10-year and 30-year bonds.
So check out today’s Closing Bell video and don’t forget to like the video on YouTube if you want to make my day.
Greetings,
Murray Dawes,
Editor, Fat Tail Daily
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