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With less than two months to go until March Madness begins, now is a good time to update our college basketball futures portfolio.
Here are two teams I'm buying in the long-term betting markets:
Kentucky: SEC regular season champions (12/1, FanDuel)
Kentucky has two conference games left against Tennessee, one against Alabama and one against Auburn.
But other than that, the Cats have a relatively easy path compared to the conference tournament.
They have four games left against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, two of the only three SEC teams ranked under 100 in KenPom.
They also face an overrated Ole Miss team and seven of their last 13 games are at Rupp Arena.
After going 4-2 in conference play and tied for third in the SEC, now is the time to buy the Wildcats.
Auburn (5-1 in the SEC) and Alabama (5-1) have one game left after the Crimson Tide defeated the Tigers at home on Wednesday.
Alabama only has one more game against the SEC cellar dwellers (Arkansas), while Auburn only has two (Vandy, Missouri). Meanwhile, Tennessee (4-1) has played seven of its last 13 games on the road.
Relatively speaking, Kentucky has the easiest path to the top of the SEC.
I know they just lost to South Carolina, but the Wildcats are still an elite team, especially on offense.
The five guard-heavy offenses that John Calipari has dropped into are scorching opposing defenses, as the Cats rank fourth nationally in offensive efficiency, sixth in eFG% and fourth in turnover rate.
And what's even better: the replacement of the 1.90 meter tall Croatian Zvonimir Ivisic has changed the team's performance.
The newcomer, who had previously played for the Montenegro-based professional team, was initially declared ineligible to play, but the country's courts immediately ruled all ineligible players eligible to play, and now the unicorn is allowed to move freely on the field.
Kentucky forward Zvonimir Ivisic. Getty Images
His performance as an interior defender and rim protector is stratospheric. He can stretch the floor on offense and translate well into Kentucky's spread design as an inside-out big man.
His instincts and vision as a short-roll passer give the Wildcats an added swing-the-ball dimension.
Big Z is expected to move up draft boards and Kentucky should move to the top of the SEC within the next month.
Texas A&M: NCAA Tournament Winner (80/1, BetMGM)
According to ShotQuality, the Aggies rank first nationally in offensive efficiency and third overall. Still, they rank 36th in KenPom's offensive efficiency, including 348th in eFG%.
Where is the break?
ShotQuality predicts efficiency and shot counts based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed, rather than misses or misses.
Betting on college basketball?
And the Aggies are looking good, finishing in the top 50 nationally in ShotQuality's shot selection metric, but nothing is sinking.
They shoot just 26 percent from distance and score 0.78 points per possession on catch-and-shoots, both of which are among the worst in the country.
But this is untenable; No team should shoot this poorly for an entire season.
Based on the “quality” of shots taken, Texas A&M should shoot 33% from 3 and post a PPP of around 1.3. There's a lot of positive regression on the horizon in College Station, and once the numbers come down, the Aggies should be rolling.
However, instead of setting them up to win the SEC like Kentucky did, I'd rather Texas A&M try to win the whole thing because the Aggies are a team that can win six straight games in the tournament.
Texas A&M point guard Wade Taylor Getty Images
The Aggies are led by an elite point guard in Wade Taylor and they crash the offensive boards better than any other team in the country.
Previous teams have found tournament success through sharp defensive play and relentless second chances.
Now is the time to buy Texas A&M in the futures markets as the team's upside potential is much higher than the odds reflect.
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