Fans are treated to a much more intense football game on Monday night than last week when the Rams travel to San Francisco. For this clash, we’re targeting Allen Robinson to get our NFL betting tips and predictions rolling.
The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers rekindle their heated NFC West rivalry on Monday Night Football to wrap up week four of the NFL.
The defending Super Bowl champions have recovered from an embarrassment in Week 1 but still don’t look like the same team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last February — especially an offense far from the pace of 2021 .
The 49ers take the risk in Week 4 to start the year 1-3 straight, with betting markets taking on San Francisco as short home favorites. The Niners have recent history on their side, winning three straight contests against LA in the Bay Area dating back to 2019.
I’ll dissect the point spreads and over/under totals for Monday Night Football and share my top NFL betting tips and predictions for Rams at 49ers on October 3rd.
Rams vs 49ers best odds
Rams vs. 49ers tips and predictions
These two teams have a lot of history together, especially since head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay picked up their respective clipboards in 2017.
One player who could have a big impact on Monday’s outcome, however, is new to this NFC West war: Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson.
Robinson has had a quiet start to his tenure at LA after garnering plenty of off-season love in the player futures markets this summer. Robinson had just 12 yards to a catch in the Week 1 blowout loss to Buffalo and followed that with 53 yards (four catches) and 23 yards (two catches) over the next two weeks.
As a result, his prop totals for receiving yards have fallen like a rock across the market. Robinson’s Week 1 received yards over/under with an ambitious 65.5 yards trimmed to 45.5 yards in Week 2 (which he surpassed by 7.5 yards) before going under his Week 3 total of 50.5 yards .
His Receiving Yards prop for Week 4 is just 38.5 yards on the board for this Battle by the Bay. It seems like a great place to shop for a receiver who has settled into a new system and is cooking up chemistry in the opening month of action with a new quarterback (no preseason rep, mind you).
Not only is Robinson a new wrinkle on this offense and something the 49ers haven’t encountered in previous matchups with McVay’s playbook, but he should have plenty of opportunities to make a splash given the makeup of this San Francisco defense.
The Niners go into Week 4 with the 5th best defensive DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers at Football Outsiders and will throw double coverage at Rams WR1 Cooper Kupp, who has routinely set fire to the 49ers. We’ve seen Los Angeles’ WR2 options vs. San Francisco (Jefferson, Beckham Jr.) perform well and with Van Jefferson still on the IR, Robinson will enjoy plenty of snaps in one-on-one coverage on Monday night.
Adding even more life to that prop market is Robinson’s ability to lock tight ends for the 49ers. The Niners are currently the NFL’s best in TEs allowed yards and ended 2021 with the third-lowest TE allowed yards. That means Rams TE Tyler Higbee — who ranks second on the team in goals and yards — won’t be around as a popular option for Matthew Stafford.
I’m also not entirely convinced of San Francisco’s pass defense as it played two bad QBs in bad weather games (Chicago and Seattle) and then with new QB Russell Wilson – who cooked up the Niners for it – caught a Denver offense in the transition game- Winning Drive last Sunday night. While the advanced defensive metrics have San Francisco at the top, I believe there’s room to play against the best offense the 49ers have faced in 2022 to date.
With Robinson another week in McVay’s complex playbook and Stafford’s two favorite options pinched by the Niners defense, the window is open for him to surpass his discounted receiving yards.
my best bet: Allen Robinson Over 38.5 yards (-110 at bet365)
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Spread Analysis Rams vs. 49ers
The lookahead line for this divisional rivalry this summer was San Francisco -1.5 based on an attack by the Niners led by QB Trey Lance.
The official Week 4 opener hit the board at the same margin, although San Francisco came 1-2 SU and had to go under center with Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 2 after Lance’s season-ending injury.
Early play at the 49ers pumps that point up to -2.5 on Monday before Tuesday’s buyback dropped to +2.5 in Los Angeles, dropping a full point from that line. As of Sunday morning, the market consensus for San Francisco is -1.5.
BetMGM books report 72% of betting and 70% of handle riding with the Rams on Monday Night Football. Covers Consensus isn’t as bullish on LA, with 61% of the picks siding with Los Angeles.
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Rams vs. 49ers Over/Under Analysis
The over/under number was 49 points in the lookahead markets this summer. But with both offenses struggling to live up to expectations upfront, and Jimmy G suffering defeat in Week 3 in Denver with a less-than-convincing performance, the oddsmakers reopened that total early Monday morning at 47 points.
Early under money pounced on that total, taking it as high as 42.5 points on Monday afternoon, eventually dropping to 41.5 before buying back on over took the number to 42.5.
Los Angeles ranks 12th in points per game and has seen a drastic drop in production in the second half, having ranked 28th in the EPA per game for the past two quarters. San Francisco ranks 29th in points per game but has seen some of its production skewed due to bad weather games in the first two competitions of 2022.
BetMGM books report 54% of tickets on the over while the handle 50/50 is spilled in money on the over/under. Covers Consensus shows that 53% of picks support the over.
Get to know Rams vs. 49ers betting trend
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 23-19 SU and just 15-26-1 ATS as the betting favorite during his Bay Area tenure (since 2017). That includes a 3-9-1 ATS mark as a favorite in division games. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs 49ers.
Information about the game Rams vs. 49ers
| Location: | Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Monday 2 October 2022 |
| Kicking off: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Rams vs. 49ers recent injuries
Rams vs 49ers weather
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