Welcome to the Daily NHL Betting Market Report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I beat the NHL each day.
Market report for Friday, October 28th
Recap: The defeat of the Capitals ended the winning streak.
Wins: 16 Losses: 12 Units won: 3.44 units Yield: 11.8 percent
I track all my games on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. Bets are settled after the games have started. I also keep my own personal records and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to a number of factors, but for the most part they should match closely.
Today: On Friday there was a six-pack of games. I only have one small bet so far.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL odds site when they are better priced and more widely available. All recommended bets are accompanied by the recommended stake size. All stats about Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Anaheim Ducks (+220) at Vegas Golden Knights (-260)
Vegas looked strong earlier in the year, the Ducks didn’t. The Golden Knights are second in expected goals, with the Ducks second to last. There is a big gap between these two teams and Vegas has a very high probability of winning the game, but the odds generated by my model are no higher than the consensus price. In other words, I can’t justify placing a big bet on the favorite.
Boston Bruins (-155) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+135)
Brad Marchand returned Thursday and picked up three points (two goals and an assist) just a day after head coach Jim Montgomery told reporters he wouldn’t be playing. Now the team says Marchand won’t play the second half of Friday’s back-to-back in Columbus. It’s hard to take his words at face value, but it’s not like I don’t have a choice. However, we know that David Krejci will be left behind after leaving Thursday’s game with an injury. This is a big loss for the Bruins. Luckily, Linus Ullmark has been great this season and will start against the Blue Jackets. Boston should obviously be a favorite in this game but playing between tired and injured it would be hard to justify betting on them at -155. Especially now that Columbus has Patrick Laine back in the herd.
Note: Elvis Merzlikins will start for Columbus.
New York Islanders (+165) at Carolina Hurricanes (-185)
This is the first half of a back-to-back for both teams. Carolina will travel to Philadelphia on Saturday to take on the Flyers while the Islanders host the Colorado Avalanche. This makes the game difficult to handicap. The starting goalies could be any two of the four goalies on the list. At the current price, it would make sense to bet Carolina if the starters are Frederik Andersen and Semyon Varlamov, but I don’t think it’s worth betting on.
Colorado Avalanche (-140) at New Jersey Devils (+120)
Colorado plays the first game of a back-to-back on Friday. The Avalanche will travel to Long Island on Saturday to face off against the islanders. It’s not clear which goaltender will start for the Avalanche against New Jersey, and there’s almost as much uncertainty as to who the Devils will turn to. The playline has moved towards New Jersey as the Avalanche are now listed at -135 and -130, but there hasn’t been a buyback and at this point I think it’s safe to wait and see how the lineups look and Then you decide whether a bet can be placed here. The Devils are a trendy team and I can understand why anyone would want to ride them right now, but if I end up placing a bet on this game it will be on the road team.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-165) at Vancouver Canucks (+145)
Vancouver won its first game of the season Thursday in Seattle, but it came at a price when forward JT Miller blocked a shot to salvage the win and had to be helped off the ice. It’s unclear if Miller will be available Friday, but the Canucks will still be shorthanded. Brock Boeser and Quinn Hughes are both out with injuries and the blue line is looking rough. Shooting attempts on Thursday were 65-33 in Seattle’s favour, making that game arguably the Canucks’ worst performance of the year. It’s funny how ice hockey works.
The Penguins are missing a few key players, but none moves the needle more than Jake Guentzel, who has been out for a week after being shot in the ear by a teammate. Güntzel trained for the first time on Thursday, but in a non-contact sweater. Head coach Mike Sullivan originally said Guentzel would be playing on this road trip. So if he doesn’t play on Friday, his last chance will be in Seattle on Saturday. This is the first half of a back-to-back for the penguins.
If Guentzel is playing, Pittsburgh should be somewhere around -190 if Guentzel is playing for the Penguins and Miller isn’t playing for the Canucks. There’s a chance Guentzel will stay out and Miller’s injury isn’t as bad as it looked, but I’m willing to back that possibility and place a partial bet on the Penguins winning the game.
Remarks: Spencer Martin is expected to start in goal. I’m guessing Casey DeSmith will get the start for the Penguins.
Bet: Pittsburgh penguins -165 Mission: 0.825 units to gain 0.5 units
Winnipeg Jets (-155) at Arizona Coyotes (+135)
The Jets are playing their second game in as many nights after beating the Kings in Los Angeles on Thursday, and backup goaltender David Rittich is expected to start Friday. My model suggests that the market has priced this game accurately as the odds it offers match where sportsbooks have the game.
Note: This is the first game in Mullet Arena. It is a 5,000-seat multisport complex at the University of Arizona where the Sun Devils play. Reports suggest the game service is very different than what NHL players are used to. The boards are lively and the ice is fast. It’s apparently easier to control the elements inside the building since it’s so much smaller than other NHL rinks, and it’ll be interesting to see how that might affect hit rate.
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2021-22 betting season summary:
NHL Betting Guide (Futures): plus-25.9 units
Reg Season (Pages and Total): plus-6.22 units
Player Props: minus 15.33 units
Playoffs (sides and overall): minus 14.43 units
Throughts: I tried to do too much last season (The Propagator is an example) because it was my first time producing content at scale. I was concerned that my typical betting habits would be considered too selective and therefore insufficient for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.
Go forward: I’m refocusing on what’s been working for me all along: making long term forecasts for the futures markets and handicap of all 1,312 regular season games.
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