Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings runs the ball into the end zone during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens on November 7, 2021 at M&T Bank Stadium. Photo by Todd Olszewski / Getty Images via AFP)
Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 1,947 yards for the first time in his career. In this article, we’ve put together a little cheat sheet that includes the odds for multiple wide receivers and tight ends to lead the NFL in receiving yards this season.
There are several sportsbooks that offer futures markets where you can bet on who will lead the NFL in a specific statistical category. To see if there are any significant gaps between forecasts and betting markets, I decided to compare these odds to forecasts from Fantasy Pros, ESPN and Pro Football Focus.
After comparing their projections to their odds to take on the NFL, certain players stand out to me.
2022 Regular Season Receiving Yards Leader Odds
| player | Projections via Fantasy Pros, ESPN and PFF | Most regular season reception yards via FanDuel | Most regular season reception yards via DraftKings | Most yards in the regular season via PointsBet |
| Justin Jefferson | 1,488 | +950 | +800 | +800 |
| Cooper coup | 1,487 | +950 | +900 | +900 |
| Yes’Marr Chase | 1,379 | +1300 | +1000 | +1100 |
| Davante Adams | 1,238 | +1400 | +1200 | +1500 |
| Stefan Diggs | 1,233 | +1400 | +1400 | +1500 |
| CeeDee lamb | 1,231 | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Travis Kelce | 1.187 | +1700 | +2000 | +1800 |
| DJ Moore | 1.174 | +3200 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Tea Higgins | 1.157 | +3900 | +3500 | +3500 |
| AJ Brown | 1.154 | +3200 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1.145 | +2100 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Mike Evans | 1.132 | +2100 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Mark Andrews | 1,120 | +2700 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 1,085 | +5500 | +3500 | +5000 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1,080 | +5500 | +4500 | +5000 |
| DK Metcalf | 1,079 | +3900 | +5000 | +4000 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1,074 | +4400 | +5000 | +6600 |
| Debbo Samuel | 1,051 | +3200 | +2500 | +2500 |
| mike williams | 1,051 | +3200 | +3500 | +3300 |
| Keenan Allen | 1,048 | +3900 | +3000 | +3300 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1,029 | +7000 | +4500 | +5000 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1,011 | +5500 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Gabriel Davis | 997 | +5500 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Tyler Lockett | 996 | +4400 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Diontae Johnson | 972 | +3900 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Jerry Jedy | 971 | +3200 | +2500 | +3300 |
| Rashod Bateman | 943 | +11000 | +7000 | +12500 |
| Courtland Sutton | 943 | +5500 | +4500 | +5000 |
| Marchioness Brown | 935 | +4400 | +4000 | +3300 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 934 | +5500 | +6000 | +5000 |
| George Kittel | 927 | +11000 | +8000 | +6600 |
| Amari Cooper | 920 | +4400 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Allen Robinson II | 906 | +5500 | +6000 | +4000 |
| Michael Thomas | 903 | +3900 | +6000 | +3300 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 896 | +8500 | +6000 | +6600 |
| Elijah Moore | 885 | +11000 | +6000 | +10000 |
| Christian Kirk | 882 | +7000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| De Vonta Smith | 880 | +8500 | +5000 | +6600 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 848 | +3900 | +4000 | +5000 |
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Moore, WR, Panthers (+3200 via FanDuel)
While this isn’t a quarterback market, you can still see the hatred of Baker Mayfield in the odds. While DJ Moore has one of the better yards receiving forecasts, we see him trading at +3200 to lead the NFL in yards receiving. Mayfield is an important factor in this.
Moore has surpassed 1,100 yards in each of the last three seasons, which doesn’t really appeal to that market. So it’s reasonable to ask if he can take his stats to the next level, which would be necessary to lead the NFL in receiving courts. While I understand the concerns, I believe Moore has a way.
Let’s look at Moore’s numbers and do some simple calculations here. During the 2020 season, Moore averaged 18.1 yards per reception and accumulated 1,193 receiving yards. Moore increased his receptions to 93 in 2021 from 66 in 2020, but his yards per reception fell from 18.1 to 12.4. With Sam Darnold, PJ Walker and Cam Newton as quarterbacks, Moore had to run shorter stretches.
Multiply Moore’s 93 receiving yards by his 2020 average of 18.1 yards per receiving, and you get 1,683 receiving yards. It’s all hypothetical, but I don’t think it’s unrealistic for Moore to return to that 18.1 average. Teddy Bridgewater was Moore’s quarterback in 2020, and while Mayfield might not be a fan favorite, he does possess some arm strength.
I believe Moore is undervalued in this market, but I also believe you will have time to evaluate this situation before placing a bet. After the Carolina Panthers’ Week 7 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Panthers’ passing plan becomes much easier, which is why I would consider placing a bet on Moore.
Lamb, WR, Cowboys (+1400 via DraftKings)
I’m backing CeeDee Lamb this season as he will be Dak Prescott’s top wide receiver and should see a lot of goals. Even if I have a very high opinion of Lamb, that doesn’t automatically mean that I’m backing him in this market.
As you can see from both the forecasts and the odds board, Lamb’s price is actually quite accurate. Lamb probably won’t offer value in this market at +1400 at this stage of the season. In my opinion, bettors would be better off waiting for a move on the odds board and looking for a better price for Lamb as the season progresses.
For those looking to capitalize on Lamb’s breakout this season, I would recommend taking advantage of the offensive Player of the Year futures market, where Lamb is trading at +7500. This is a much better stat than putting Lamb +1400 to lead the NFL in receiving yards.
Chase, WR, Bengals (+1300 via FanDuel)
Although Kupp and Justin Jefferson opened as the favorites in this market, I prefer Ja’Marr Chase given the tight opening lines and lack of value in this market. Chase is much more appealing to me at +1300 than Kupp or Jefferson at +900.
During his rookie season, Chase amassed 1,455 receiving yards on just 81 receptions. While Kupp rushed for 1,947 yards last season, he did so with an insane 145-shot workload. Chase would have received 2,610 yards if he had the same number of receptions as Kupp last season, with his average of 18 yards per reception. With Joe Burrow at the helm, Chase has an opportunity to capitalize on his explosive wide receiver skills.
Additionally, I believe the market rates Chase a little higher due to the difficulty of the Cincinnati Bengals’ passing schedule. In terms of passing efficiency, the Bengals have the toughest schedule in the NFL. It’s likely that this will turn many bettors away from Chase, but I actually think it could be positive for Chase.
If you look at Chase’s game logs from last season, you’ll see that his best performances came against the Bengals’ most difficult opponents. It is likely that Chase will see many positive game scripts for the Bengals passing offense this season due to a tougher schedule and more competitive games.
Here are our top rated sports bets:
FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesar’s Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM
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Jon Metler
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Jon Metler is a sports betting analyst at SportsbookReview.com. He has been in sports betting for over 12 years and specializes in futures markets. He keeps a close eye on futures market movements across a variety of sports in search of value. He is a firm believer in analytics and always being one step ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. Jon covers futures markets in the MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB, PGA Tour and LPGA. A lifelong Detroit Tigers fan, he still has nightmares of Torii Hunter knocking over the Boston Red Sox’s bullpen. After redeeming consecutive LPGA Money List futures tickets priced up to +8000 in 2020, Jon serves as the President of the Jin Young Ko Fan Club. Jon has a bachelor’s degree in Physical Education from the University of Windsor. You can find him watching games, listening to sports, or looking for his golf ball in the woods.
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